Donald Trump’s pick for his running mate in November’s U.S. presidential election signals a stronger focus on China and less help for Ukraine if the ticket is elected — offering a mixed bag for nervous American allies and partners in Asia, as the newly minted Republican nominee rides a wave of support following an attempt on his life this week.
J.D. Vance, a 39-year-old freshman senator from Ohio with little experience in politics and even less on foreign policy, represents a hardening of Trump’s “America First” stance, but could also help push a tougher line on a more assertive China and support for democratic Taiwan.
In one of his first interviews following Monday’s announcement that he was Trump’s vice presidential pick, Vance was quick to underscore the increasingly hawkish stance toward Beijing of any second Trump White House.
Asked during the interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity about the war in Ukraine, Vance said Trump would negotiate with Moscow and Kyiv to "bring this thing to a rapid close so America can focus on the real issue, which is China.”
"That’s the biggest threat to our country and we are completely distracted from it,” he said.
‘Economically nationalist’
During Trump’s first stint in office, his administration opened the door to tough new policies intended to counter China that just a few years earlier would have been unthinkable. A number of these policies have been adopted — and even expanded — under Trump’s successor and election rival, U.S. President Joe Biden.
If returned to the White House in November’s election, Trump has pledged to impose 10% levies on all imported goods and a tariff of as much as 60% on Chinese goods to protect American industries.
Vance — who has said he is “economically nationalist” when it comes to China — has backed this promise, claiming in a May interview that implementing these measures would help revitalize manufacturing in the United States.
“If you apply tariffs, really what it is you're saying (is) that we're going to penalize you for using slave labor in China and importing that stuff in the United States,” he told CBS News’ “Face the Nation.” “What you end up doing is, you end up making more stuff in America, in Pennsylvania, in Ohio and in Michigan.”
But Vance, like Trump, has also endorsed even bigger steps against China, cosponsoring legislation in 2023 that would revoke China’s favored trade status, more than a year before his Republican Party formally backed such a measure in its platform released earlier this month.
This would essentially mean repealing the permanent normal trade relations and lower tariffs the United States granted China after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Some analysts have said doing so would be hugely destabilizing for the global economy, with one study finding it would result in a $1.6 trillion loss and 744,000 fewer jobs for the U.S. over five years.
While such unprecedented moves against China would be expected to consume much of the oxygen in another Trump White House, giving Japan time to assess whether they will be next, the measures would likely be seen as an implicit threat to Tokyo: Open your markets more to American products, including automobiles, or else.
Meanwhile, Vance has signaled that despite alliance ties being the most robust in years, a Japanese-owned U.S. Steel would not happen under his watch, with the senator alleging that a plan to sell it to Nippon Steel would make the company “less responsive to U.S. national security needs.”
From Ukraine to Asia
Beyond economics, Vance, who served in the Marines from 2003 to 2007 as a “combat correspondent” — or military journalist — has also taken a hard line against growing Chinese military assertiveness in Asia.
The vice presidential candidate has repeatedly stressed in speeches and interviews that the United States must focus on the region, even echoing the language used during Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration of a “pivot” to Asia.
However, this pivot, Vance says, must come with a recognition that the U.S. is stretched thin as it grapples with the Ukraine war, the conflict in Gaza and the possibility of a contingency over Taiwan.
In particular, he has been among the ardent opponents of Washington’s continued aid to Kyiv.
"I think it’s ridiculous that we’re focused on this border in Ukraine,” Vance said on the podcast of former top Trump adviser Steve Bannon in 2022. "I’ve got to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”
At the Munich Security Conference last February, he appeared to have softened his views somewhat, saying that while he was not advocating pulling out of NATO or abandoning Europe, the United States needed to focus its efforts on Asia instead of Ukraine.
According to Vance, this likely means beefing up U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific and positioning more weapons there.
“You have to ask yourself, is China going to be more dissuaded by us thumping our chests and acting tough in Europe, or are they going to be more dissuaded by us having the weapons necessary to prevent them from invading Taiwan?” he said during an April interview on “Fox News Sunday.”
“The Chinese are focused on real power,” he added. “They’re not focused on how tough people talk on TV or how strong our alleged resolve is. They’re focused on how strong we actually are ... and right now, we’re stretched too thin.”
For Tokyo, Vance’s views are likely to cut both ways.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly stressed that “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow” — remarks widely seen as a warning that China could look to invade Taiwan, embroiling the region in a devastating conflict.
But Japan has also pushed for increased U.S. engagement in the region, both on the security and economic fronts.
Kishida has been clear that Tokyo desires U.S. support for Ukraine, in part because he must convince the Japanese public that the U.S. remains a reliable ally, said Zack Cooper, an expert on U.S. strategy in Asia at Zack Cooper at the American Enterprise Institute. And while Tokyo might be reassured by a greater U.S. focus on China, it will be worried that the United States is pulling back from the world more generally.
“A Trump administration would therefore need to send some clear signals of commitment in Asia while pulling back from Ukraine,” Cooper said.
Trump loyalist
It’s unclear how much authority Vance would wield as Trump’s deputy if the pair are elected, but the Ohio senator — who once compared the former president to Hitler — has repositioned himself as a loyal ally, eager to defend Trump and potentially follow in his footsteps.
While many vice presidents had been notoriously unhappy with their roles in the past, there has been a shift in recent years, as VPs — including Biden during his time as Obama’s — carve out important roles as confidants, envoys and top advisers.
Indeed, Mike Pence, Trump’s first-term vice president, spent much of his term in office making trips abroad to reassure nervous U.S. allies and partners about his unpredictable boss’ intentions.
“Paying close attention to (Vance’s) foreign policy philosophy as it evolves in the coming months may prove crucial to understanding the contours of a second Trump term — or indeed a future Vance administration,” Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett, researchers at the United States Studies Center, University of Sydney, wrote Tuesday.
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