Global aging and rising body weight will more than double the number of people with diabetes by 2050, researchers predicted, putting millions more people at risk of a variety of dangerous disorders.

More than 1.3 billion people worldwide will have diabetes at the half-century mark, up from 529 million in 2021, according to estimates released Thursday by the Lancet medical journal. The vast majority of patients will have Type 2 diabetes, the form of the disease that’s often linked to being overweight.

A loss of the body’s ability to control blood sugar levels, diabetes affects 1 in 10 adults globally and caused 6.7 million deaths in 2021, the International Diabetes Federation estimates. The disease has unequal impacts, with fewer than 10% of people affected in low and middle-income countries receiving proper care, the Lancet researchers note.