Japan’s population will fall to 87 million in 2070, or around 70% of the current 126 million, of which non-Japanese residents will account for 10.8%, according to the latest projections released Wednesday by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
Also, in 50 years, the percentage of people age 65 or older is estimated to reach 38.7%, up from 28.6% in 2020, the health ministry-affiliated institute said.
The population estimates include all Japanese nationals and foreign nationals living in Japan for more than three months.
Japan’s population has been in decline since 2009, after peaking out the year before at 128 million, and the downward trend is likely to continue. The pace of depopulation in the latest report, however, was found to be slightly slower than the previous projection released in 2017. This was due to updated data on average life expectancy, which got longer, and the larger number of people coming into the country.
As a result, the year in which the population is likely to fall below 100 million has been pushed back from 2053 to 2056, and the number of people age 15 to 64, or the working population, is estimated to dip below 70 million in 2032 as opposed to 2029, as stated in the previous estimate.
The ratio of non-Japanese residents will rise over five decades to 10.8% in 2070, up from 2.2% in 2020, the year for which the latest statistics are available.
The institute releases long-term demographic projections every five years, based on the latest census and other statistics. The latest announcement came a year later than usual because of delays due to COVID-19 in the compilation of surveys on marriages and births.
The projection takes into account the impact of COVID-19, which from 2020 through 2022 led to a decrease in the number of marriages and childbirths, but not the effects of future socioeconomic conditions or government policies, as they are hard to predict and quantify, the institute’s researchers said.
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