The immediate reaction to a surprise decision by OPEC+ to cut production was straightforward enough — oil prices surged the most in more than a year. How that will impact the global campaign to end the use of planet-warming fossil fuels is less clear.

In the past year, soaring energy prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been accelerants and a curse for the transition away from dirty fuels. While they’ve underscored the downside of relying on commodities controlled by a handful of countries, the sudden crunch has pushed even the most climate-progressive nations to turn to coal and gas as a backup.

The latest OPEC-driven price shock is no different.