Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's reported plan to meet U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a trip to the United States instead of back home appears to be Taipei’s way of trying to avoid increased tensions with China after a controversial trip to the island by McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, last year, according to a former U.S. diplomat.
William Stanton, who headed the American Institute of Taiwan (AIT) — the de facto U.S. Embassy on the self-ruled island — from 2009 to 2012, said in an exclusive interview with The Japan Times in Taipei that while Tsai is keen on securing McCarthy’s support, she may also hope to temper China’s reaction by meeting the Republican Congressional leader outside of Taiwan.
Although Beijing would condemn the meeting regardless of the location, Stanton said, “the change of venue could be viewed as a proactive step to avoid a repeat of Beijing’s dangerous, large-scale military exercises and missile launches near the self-ruled island that followed Pelosi’s visit last August.”
While Tsai’s move wouldn’t necessarily cancel McCarthy’s anticipated trip to the democratically governed island, it would at least postpone it, added Stanton, who is currently a geopolitics professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University.
Tsai has reportedly been invited to make stopovers in New York and California in late March and early April while en route to and from diplomatic allies in Central America.
The reason for the change of venue, explained Stanton, is that when a high-ranking U.S. official announces a visit to Taiwan, Taipei is not really in a position to say “no,” as this would be seen as a rebuff of U.S. outreach and a capitulation to Beijing.
While Stanton is not opposed to high-ranking U.S. officials visiting Taiwan, the 76-year old was critical of last year’s controversial trip by then-House Speaker Pelosi, arguing that it didn't add anything substantial to U.S.-Taiwan ties.
“Like most Taiwanese I know, I wasn’t very keen on Pelosi’s largely symbolic visit, which brought a lot of trouble to Taiwan but failed to provide the Taiwanese anything concrete in return,” he said.
What these officials should keep in mind is that such high-profile visits don’t accomplish much for Taiwan unless they are accompanied by concrete deliverables such as arms sales or efforts to strengthen Taipei’s position in the international community, the former AIT director said, arguing that other less visible but more productive steps could be taken to move the relationship forward.
With her trip to Taiwan, Pelosi became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island in 25 years, a move that Beijing condemned as “maliciously infringing on China’s sovereignty.”
Although Washington has no official diplomatic ties with Taipei, China regards visits by U.S. officials as encouraging the pro-independence movement on the island.
Given that the U.S. house speaker is second in the presidential line of succession, China has emphasized that it views such visits to and activities in Taiwan, “in whatever form and for whatever reason,” as a “major political provocation,” because they in effect upgrade U.S. official exchanges with Taipei.
Beijing also condemns such visits as being in violation of the “One China” principle: a claim that Stanton categorically rejects.
“There’s never been a U.S. violation because Washington has never accepted the One China principle,” he said, pointing to the different interpretations Washington and Beijing have of the 1972 joint communique and subsequent bilateral statements regarding the status of Taiwan.
“The United States has simply acknowledged the Chinese position that there is one China,” he said. “We have never said that we accept it, let alone that we recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.”
While Beijing drafted its own version of the communique in Chinese saying that Taiwan is part of China, “we made it clear to the Chinese side that we regard the English version of the agreement — reflected in our One China Policy — as the binding text for us, with the U.S. emphasis being on ‘acknowledging’ the Chinese position on Taiwan rather than recognizing it.”
Despite this key difference, both sides went ahead with the 1972 joint communique. One reason for this was that Washington wanted Taipei at the time to give up the idea that it was somehow going to retake the Chinese mainland.
“We never saw Taiwan as part of a greater China as some Taiwanese did,” he said.
At the same time, there were important geopolitical factors at play, he noted. The Vietnam War was at the forefront of President Richard Nixon’s concerns and the collapse of the Soviet Union would not occur for another two decades, so Washington was preoccupied with Hanoi and Moscow.
Stanton argues that, given the many changes the U.S., China and Taiwan have undergone since the 1970s, it has become inevitable for shifts in the trilateral relationship to emerge, particularly considering China’s dramatic rise as an autocratic economic and military power and Taiwan’s transformation into a vibrant and prosperous democracy.
He emphasized that Washington’s acknowledgement of the Chinese position on Taiwan has always been premised on the expectation that a resolution of the issue would be found peacefully and not through the threat of force.
However, as China has become increasingly threatening in its approach, particularly under leader Xi Jinping, the U.S. has reacted by adapting its level of support of Taiwan, including with increased weapons sales to ensure that Taiwan has the capability to defend itself, he added.
“The Chinese want to say it is all set in stone because it favors their view on the way things should be,” he said.
That said, as U.S.-Taiwan relations grow increasingly close, many wonder why Washington hasn’t taken another step and recognized the island diplomatically.
Stanton’s view is that this is something Washington should not do without Taipei’s consent. The reason for this, he said, is that a lot of Taiwanese understand that U.S. diplomatic recognition risks crossing a Chinese “red line” that might precipitate conflict.
“Particularly those in power in Taipei argue that Taiwan is already a de facto independent country and that it is better to remain that way for now,” Stanton said. “They think making such a declaration is not going to benefit Taiwan in any way as China would continue pressuring other countries not to recognize Taiwan.”
In a world operating on ethical principles, he said, there would be no question about whether the United States should formally recognize Taiwan as the clearly free, independent, and democratic country that it is.
“Tragically, we do not live in such a world. A decision about diplomatic recognition of Taiwan is therefore far from simple.”
Based on the Japanese equivalent entity after Washington switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, the government-run AIT is a nonprofit that carries out unofficial relations with Taiwan and acts as a conduit for communication with Taipei.
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