The yen could surge to be as strong as ¥85 per dollar if the market witnesses a combination of full-blown policy normalization by the Bank of Japan and an easing cycle from the Federal Reserve.
That’s the view outlined by Deutsche Bank in a note to clients Monday. Such a move would amount to an appreciation of close to 60% from the yen’s current level, which on Tuesday was around ¥136 to the dollar.
The bank judges that right now the Japanese currency is around 30% cheaper than its "equilibrium fair value,” a level that the analysts peg around ¥100 per dollar. While noting that there are other factors at play in the valuation of the yen, the analysts reckon it could hit that level if there were to be a total normalization of policy by the Bank of Japan, which is still holding its benchmark near zero and engaging in unorthodox measures such as yield curve control.