Ukraine war — and impact on Asia — take top billing in Japan defense white paper

Japan underscored the potentially long-lasting impact of the war in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific region in its annual defense white paper released Friday, devoting an entirely new section to the conflict and its implications for Asia.

The focus on the ongoing conflict thousands of kilometers away comes as Japan looks warily at military powerhouse China and its plans for self-ruled Taiwan, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warning repeatedly that "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.”

“If Russia's aggression is tolerated, it may give the wrong impression that unilateral changes in the status quo are allowed in other regions, including Asia,” the white paper said. “The international community, including Japan, must not tolerate such aggression.”

The paper’s section on the bloody invasion also noted the international community’s “united” response to “Russian aggression,” adding that while the outcome remains unpredictable, Japan “needs to closely monitor related developments with grave concern.”

Last year’s defense white paper prompted an angry rebuke from Beijing after it referred for the first time to the importance of stability around Taiwan, a view that was echoed in the latest report, which said that Japan “must pay close attention to the situation, with an even greater sense of vigilance.”

China — which views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be brought back into the fold, by force if necessary — has in recent years ramped up its military activities around the island, sending advanced fighters, bombers and cutting-edge warships and aircraft carriers into and over nearby waters.

Senior Japanese officials, including late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, have said that a Chinese attack on democratic Taiwan — a key semiconductor-maker that sits astride key shipping lanes that provide Japan with much of its energy — would also represent an emergency for Tokyo. Some, including former Prime Minister Taro Aso, have even hinted that Japan would help defend Taiwan with the U.S. if it were invaded by China.

“Taiwan is located very close to our country's southwestern islands and is only about 110 kilometers from Yonaguni Island, our westernmost islet,” the report said in a column. “It is located at the junction of the South China Sea, the Bashi Strait and the East China Sea, facing Japan's important sea lanes. For these reasons, stability in the situation surrounding Taiwan is important not only for the security of Japan, but also for the stability of the international community.”

Although Taiwan and Japan do not have formal diplomatic ties, the two sides have long maintained a robust relationship in a variety of informal spheres. Highlighting these ties, the white paper called the self-ruled island “an extremely important partner and a dear friend of our country, with whom we share fundamental values such as freedom, democracy, basic human rights and the rule of law.”

The report also addressed rising Sino-U.S. tensions, including over Taiwan. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has largely hemmed closely to the tough China policy of his predecessor, Donald Trump. Biden has even appeared to break with decades of American policy by vowing multiple times to defend Taiwan if it were to be invaded. Though those comments were later walked back, they have stirred anger in Beijing.

Under the United States’ long-standing “One China” policy, Washington officially recognizes Beijing rather than Taipei, while its Taiwan Relations Act requires the U.S. to provide the self-ruled island with the means to defend itself.

“As the Biden administration, like the Trump administration, makes clear it will support Taiwan in a military sense, it is unlikely China will compromise with the U.S. stance, and there is a possibility that a confrontation between the U.S. and China will emerge,” the Defense Ministry said in the white paper.

In language largely similar to the 2021 white paper, this year’s report also characterized China’s military buildup, including its activities near Japan and the “modernization and diversification” of its nuclear and missile capabilities, as a “strong security concern.”

It also took aim at deepening Sino-Russian military cooperation, including recent joint bomber flights and sailings by warships around Japan. Russia's losses in Ukraine could also prompt Moscow to rely more on its nuclear deterrent, which could in turn lead it to boost its military activities near Japan, the report said.

The white paper also singled out nuclear-armed North Korea for its repeated missile launches — totaling a record 31 this year alone. Pyongyang, it added, is diversifying its nuclear and missile arsenal in an apparent attempt to “acquire the means to deal with a possible armed conflict with the United States and South Korean militaries using conventional forces and tactical nuclear weapons.”

The paper’s section on South Korea, meanwhile, differed slightly from last year’s, noting that the “increasingly severe and complex” security environment has made cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo “more and more important.” Still, the report is likely to raise eyebrows in Seoul for reiterating criticism of South Korean military drills near the Takeshima islets, which are claimed by Tokyo but controlled by Seoul, which calls them Dokdo.

In a year that is expected to see Japan revise three key national security documents that will cement its defense policy for years to come, the white paper also hinted that the country would consider a controversial decision to acquire a “counterstrike capability” to be used as a deterrent to China and North Korea’s increasingly advanced missile systems.

It was the first time that the so-called counterstrike capability was mentioned in a defense white paper.

“Japan has been developing a ballistic missile defense system, but we are considering all options as we formulate a new National Security Strategy based on the question of whether we can truly protect the lives and livelihoods of our citizens by simply improving our interceptor capabilities,” the report said.

Although the white paper did not mention the ongoing debate over hiking the defense budget, it did note that Japan has the lowest ratio of defense spending to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven countries plus Australia and South Korea, while also mentioning for the first time NATO countries’ commitment to spending 2% of GDP on defense.

Japan said in its annual economic policy road map released last month that the government would aim to drastically boost defense spending “within the next five years” — the first mention of a time frame for increasing that budget — while also noting the NATO figure.