Campaigning for the Upper House election kicks off Wednesday, with the vote on July 10 being the first real chance for the electorate to give a verdict on the administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. But with the opposition expected to offer little in the way of a contest, even a precipitous rise in consumer prices is unlikely to prevent a resounding victory for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

However, wider economic issues including the current weakening of the yen are casting a long shadow over the nation’s politics and could spell trouble for the prime minister further down the road — even if the Cabinet proves successful in focusing the public’s pre-election attention on issues related to security and public health.

The LDP manifesto, released Thursday, doubles down on the party’s call for constitutional changes aimed at both increasing the nation’s defense capabilities and modifying its capacity to respond to disasters and the outbreak of infectious diseases.

The election pledges of all parties have now been made public, and a Kyodo News poll conducted over the weekend projects that the LDP will secure 27.3% of the proportional representation vote, with junior coalition partner Komeito forecast to secure a further 6.2%.

In contrast, principal opposition parties the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) are projected to pick up just 7.0% and 7.7% of the vote, respectively, although Osaka-based Nippon Ishin’s star does appear to be on the rise.

34.2% of respondents to the poll were undecided on who to vote for.

Opposition strife

Kishida’s popularity has been significantly buoyed by his willingness to oppose Putin's war in Ukraine. He has joined other Group of Seven leaders in imposing wide-reaching sanctions against Russia, and he even welcomed in fleeing Ukrainians despite Japan's relatively strict border controls, a move that saw over 1,300 refugees arrive in the country by mid-June.

For the opposition — of which the CDP is the largest party — the government’s response to the war, which also included flying 20 displaced Ukrainians to Tokyo aboard a government jet in early April, is a hard one to oppose.

Since its formation in 2017, the CDP has been criticized as being unable to define its own policy positions, instead simply attacking the stances taken by the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition.

Now, in light of the strained global geopolitical environment, the party has joined the LDP in calling for an increase in the nation’s defense capabilities as part of its election manifesto, although the adoption of so-called counterstrike capabilities to enable Japan to hit enemy bases — a key element of the LDP platform — remains off-limits.

The move is believed to be aimed at attracting centrist voters who, alarmed by the increased saber rattling between neighboring China and the U.S., Japan's principle security partner in the Asia-Pacific, are looking past long-standing taboos regarding increased defense spending.

In 2019, as a contrast to the LDP, the CDP refrained from making defense a key element of its Upper House election strategy. The inclusion now comes at the risk of alienating the party’s left wing, who would prefer the CDP to focus on other policy pledges such as increasing child welfare support and reducing higher education fees.

Paradigm shift?

While there is little danger of an upset from an LDP perspective, opinion polling — largely positive throughout the first nine months of Kishida’s time as prime minister — has nonetheless dipped in recent weeks as consumers start to feel the pinch of rising prices.

A Jiji Press poll conducted last week found that the Cabinet’s approval rating stood at 48.7%, a drop of 2.1 percentage points from the month before and the first time in four months the figure had fallen below 50%.

And while that figure remains high for a prime minister at this stage of their tenure, infighting within the LDP — principally between Kishida’s own dovish faction and the hawkish faction of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe over defense spending — means that his authority within the party itself still rests on somewhat shaky ground.

A healthy increase on the 35.37% of the proportional representation vote secured by the LDP under Abe’s leadership in the 2019 Upper House election would provide Kishida with a strengthened mandate within the party and a greater ability to push ahead with his flagship "new capitalism" fiscal initiatives, which are expected to gain more substance following the election.

For Giulio Pugliese, a lecturer in Japanese politics at Oxford University, the LDP’s chances of securing a convincing victory could rest on the Cabinet’s ability to balance the equally weighted demands of able diplomacy and a feasible economic plan capable of pulling Japan out of its present slide into "stagflation" — rising prices combined with economic stagnation and even shrinkage.

Whereas the public in previous Upper House elections tended to vote based on bread and butter issues such as pensions, pay and child care, Japan is now witnessing what Pugliese considers a kind of “paradigmatic shift” in political attitudes, with the proper handling of foreign and security policy considered to be increasingly important by the electorate.

In that sense, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has benefited Kishida, Pugliese continued, allowing him to play the role of international statesman, as he did at a security summit in Singapore earlier this month, thereby burnishing his credentials at home.

"(Putting an emphasis on defense) is aimed at showcasing results (of diplomacy) to the people, and its prioritization will also aim at legitimizing spending public monies there," Pugliese said.

Voter concerns

Whether or not the electorate is ready for such a shift away from bread-and-butter issues toward diplomacy remains to be seen, and some experts argue that there are more pressing domestic needs to address first.

“Public interest in the Ukraine war has increased the focus on security issues, becoming a theme that Kishida can strategically target in order to increase the LDP’s percentage of the vote share,” said political journalist Tetsuo Suzuki. “But what the pledges should be focusing on are measures such as combating rising prices, social welfare issues, such as pension funding, and the provision of support for those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

All of which would require major policy decisions — something Kishida has so far shown little appetite for — which could leave the prime minister exposed in the buildup to the election.

“I don’t see Kishida needing to do anything particularly bold in order to perform well, as he can simply push for small gains while relying on a high approval rating,” Suzuki added. “For him, it’s better to avoid doing anything that could invite criticism. The focus on defense will please the LDP’s traditional conservative support base and is therefore likely to pull in a lot of votes.”