The world has officially recorded 1 million deaths from COVID-19 in one of the most sobering milestones of the pandemic, but the real tally might be almost double that.

Actual fatalities from the worst outbreak in a century may be closer to 1.8 million — a toll that could grow to as high as 3 million by the end of the year, according to Alan Lopez, a laureate professor and director of the University of Melbourne’s global burden of disease group. The coronavirus’s rapid spread and ability to transmit in people who show no signs of the disease have enabled it to outrun measures to accurately quantify cases through widespread diagnostic testing.

"One million deaths has meaning by itself, but the question is whether it’s true,” Lopez said in an interview before the tally was reached. "It’s fair to say that the 1 million deaths, as shocking as it sounds, is probably an underestimate — a significant underestimate.”