Climate change could cause 10 times more damage to the global economy than previously estimated, slashing output by as much as 23 percent by the end of the century, a new research paper from Stanford and Berkeley finds.
Looking at 166 countries between 1960 and 2010, the researchers identified an optimal average annual temperature that coincides with peak productivity. It's 13 degrees (55 F), or approximately the climate of San Francisco's bay area. The paper appears in the new issue of Nature.
Countries in the tropics, already hotter than this optimal temperature, are likely to face the most dramatic economic pain from warming, the study found. Countries at or just past the 13-degree annual average, like the United States, China, and Japan, may be increasingly vulnerable to losses as the temperature warms. Northern countries well below the ideal average may see benefits as opportunities open up for agriculture and industry.