It took Russian President Vladimir Putin just three weeks to annex Crimea. Figuring out what to do with eastern Ukraine might take him longer.
Lacking the the groundswell of support and direct military presence Russia marshaled near the base of its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, the probability of an outright invasion is below 50 percent, according to Eurasia Group and Teneo Intelligence.
With Russia at risk of the full force of Western economic sanctions, Putin will be content to choke Ukraine's economy and snarl its politics in the run-up to May 25 presidential elections.