Only our descendants will know for sure, but we may be witnessing something not seen in the world since the slow demise of ancient Egypt — a nation expiring of natural causes. Nations, unlike people, are potentially immortal. When they die, it's usually violently. Japan may make history by its manner of leaving it. It may simply crumble into dust.

That its vital signs are weakening is well known, and though the words "natural death" are not used, expressions just short of them are, conveying an unspoken, unspeakable fear of the worst-case scenario, that this is a country without a future. Two examples among many: "The truth about Japan you don't know," Shukan Gendai headlined ominously last month. "Japan at rock bottom," added Shukan Shincho last week.

In August 1983, the American weekly Time put out a special issue on Japan and asked, bedazzled, "What is this place, this center of international attention, worry, amazement?" Yes, Japan was a power in those days, surging, mysterious, "a power without arms" — and yet even then there were worrying portents. The Japanese people, Time warned, "could be outrunning their sun."