Prabowo’s win signals continuity for Indonesia and the region

Indonesia's defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, looks set to become the country's next president.

The size and scale of this week’s election — more than 200 million voters cast ballots for more than 20,000 positions — means that finalizing the count will take weeks. Exit polls, which have historically been accurate, indicate that Prabowo won the first round decisively, eliminating the need for a runoff.

His victory signals more continuity than change in Indonesia’s policy and governance. Prabowo is, however, likely to be more engaged in foreign policy, mostly because outgoing President Joko Widodo has been largely uninterested in this field. Still, no significant shifts should be expected. Prabowo will continue Indonesia’s longstanding neutrality and will avoid taking sides in the expanding geopolitical contest between China and the West. He is likely to do more to protect Indonesia’s territory, however, which could result in more friction with Beijing.

Since Indonesia’s constitution forbids an incumbent for running for a third consecutive term, the field was clear for a newcomer. Three candidates contested the vote: Prabowo, Ganjar Pranowo, candidate of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, who served two terms as governor of Central Java, and former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan, an independent with strong links to Islamic political groups.

Preliminary results show Prabowo well in front with about 59% of the vote. Anies is second with an estimated 25% and Ganjar is third with 16%. A candidate is required to win more than 50% of ballots cast and 20% of votes in more than half of Indonesia’s 38 provinces. Prabowo appears to have accomplished both. If that prevails, then no run off is required and he will be inaugurated in October.

Prabowo is a known quantity. A former army general and former son-in-law of the late dictator Suharto, his military career was marked by controversy. He was accused of human rights abuses during the 1990s when East Timor rebels fought for independence, charges he strongly denied. He was given a dishonorable discharge in 1998 after Suharto was removed from power, the military dictatorship overthrown and democracy restored.

He has since undergone a political makeover and is again part of the ruling establishment. After twice fighting Widodo, or Jokowi as he is popularly known, for the presidency — and losing — he joined forces with his rival to serve as defense minister. In this election, he selected Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate, securing the current president’s implicit support.

That maneuver has raised questions about Jokowi’s desire to create a political dynasty and heightened fears that Indonesia’s democracy is being undermined. Although he was below the age that qualified him to run for office, Gibran was given an exception by the constitutional court, which is headed by Jokowi’s brother in law.

In addition, human rights groups and other activists have charged Jokowi with undermining freedom of speech, weakening government agencies entrusted with fighting corruption while strengthening their ability to prosecute critics.

Democratic backsliding matters for all of Southeast Asia. As the world’s fourth largest country in terms of population, Indonesia has been both the anchor of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and often its driving force. When it promotes democracy by policy and practice, it sets an example for the entire region, if not for all the developing world.

By contrast, indifference to the rule of law in Jakarta sends a signal to other countries that they are free to do so as well. The impact of the erosion is clear when militaries in Thailand and Myanmar overthrow their democratically elected governments.

Indonesia is also the world’s largest Muslim majority country. While religious issues have been a constant in Indonesian politics, the country has adopted a tolerant and inclusive version of Islam. This has been a pointed contrast to the Wahhabism practiced in the Middle East and shown the world that faith can be combined with a vibrant and successful democracy. Prabowo’s victory indicates that this practice will continue.

The chief issue in the election, as in most ballots, was economic opportunity. Jokowi is one of the world’s most popular leaders, a product of the investment boom he has promoted and a corresponding improvement of public services and an expanded social safety net. The World Bank credits his administration with containing inflation and spurring economic growth.

Jokowi courted Chinese investment, but also sought to diversify the economy by moving the capital, to be called Nusantara, with all the associated spending, and by developing a domestic nickel processing industry that will serve the electric vehicle boom. Prabowo has said he supports both plans.

Nevertheless, younger Indonesians — half the country’s registered voters are under the age of 40 — worry about the future. For these voters, job creation, the elimination of poverty and ending corruption are their top priorities. The three issues are linked, since corruption is a powerful barrier to a flourishing economy. According to Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index, Indonesia is 110 of 180 nations and its analysts charge that the problem has worsened while Jokowi was in office.

Japan is in a position to help. There are nearly 2,000 Japanese companies doing business in Indonesia and they employ about 7.2 million people. Those companies generate about 8.5% of Indonesia's gross domestic product and nearly 25% of its exports. Japan is Indonesia's largest aid donor and, on a cumulative basis, Indonesia remains one of the largest recipients of Japanese official development assistance. There are over 80,000 Indonesian nationals working and training in Japan, the second largest in number by country after Vietnam.

Late last year, the two governments amended their Economic Partnership Agreement to remove more trade barriers; a key part of that deal will promote trade in critical minerals, such as nickel, another step toward the realization of Jokowi’s plan. Japan should push for transparency and good governance to facilitate a tightening relationship.

Japan also gave the Indonesian Coast Guard a patrol vessel to boost its maritime capacity and capabilities. The two nation's militaries have also conducted joint exercises, with the Maritime Self-Defense Forces having made port calls in Indonesia and Japan having provided cybersecurity training and help to build capacity to support peacekeeping personnel. Maritime assistance is of growing importance as China increases activities in Indonesian waters as a means of asserting a claim to territory in that area.

Just as important is Tokyo’s support and assistance for ASEAN. Indonesia has historically led the regional group but it was not one of Jokowi’s priorities. Prabowo may decide to fill the leadership vacuum and in so doing, make the group a bigger force in regional politics, giving his country and himself a larger role in the process.

That would shape regional dynamics as the group has been largely adrift in recent years, unable to tackle crises and concerns. Japan has been courting ASEAN in an attempt to increase its own influence and a good relationship with Prabowo would help Tokyo reach that goal.

Working through ASEAN demands great patience since its decision-making is arduous and time-consuming to ensure that all countries have a say. Prabowo could decide that it is more efficient and effective to work outside the group. Ultimately, the course he chooses will depend on the determination whether Indonesia alone provides a sufficiently large canvas upon which he can express his considerable ambitions.