Who are film festivals for, really? The biggest of all, Cannes, is strictly for industry professionals (or rather, anyone with enough connections to wangle accreditation). But many other festivals have turned in a more populist direction, as indicated by the ubiquity of audience awards, which make anyone with a ticket a member of the jury.
For several years now I've been advising the Udine Far East Film Festival on its selection of Japanese films. Since it began in 1999, this festival in Udine -- a picturesque town in northeastern Italy, about a 90-minute drive from Venice -- has focused more on popular cinema than the usual festival fare. It bestows an Audience Award -- and only an Audience Award -- on three of the 50 or so films it screens over an eight-day period, this year from April 23 to 30.
For a programmer, the obvious strategy for picking a winner is to go with what's hot, as determined by box-office numbers and message-board buzz. In other words, keep your ear to the ground, not your eye on the Cannes Palme d'Or.