Since Taiwan became a full democracy in 1996, no political party has won the presidency thrice in a row.
That looks set to change on Jan. 13 as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te, the incumbent vice president, is favored to narrowly defeat a divided opposition consisting of the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Hou Yu-ih and the Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) Ko Wen-je. Lai has led his opponents since polling began in early 2023, rarely falling behind.
Since it is possible to win the election with a simple plurality, Lai could become president with less than 40% of the vote — a likely scenario given Hou’s approximate 30% level of support and Ko’s 25%.