As governments gather in Dubai for this year’s COP28 climate conference, two things are painfully clear. First, we are already in a climate emergency. Second, rich countries, especially the United States, continue to turn their back on poorer ones.
This year’s debate is focused on climate justice and financing: How to share the costs of climate disasters, and the urgently needed transformation of the world’s energy and land use systems.
The conference hosted by the United Arab Emirates is the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The first COP was held in Berlin in 1995, but our governments don’t have much to show for their work.
Back in 1995, they promised to stabilize the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere “to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” That year, CO2 emissions amounted to 29 billion tons but, this year, they were around 41 billion tons. Then, atmospheric CO2 was 361 parts per million. Now, it is 419 ppm. Then, the Earth had warmed by around 0.7 degrees Celsius compared with the period between 1880 and 1920 but, by now, it has warmed by 1.2 C.
The rate of warming is also increasing — from around 0.18 C per decade between 1970 and 2010, to at least 0.27 C per decade today. Within 10 years, we will hit 1.5 C of warming, the upper limit agreed at COP21 in Paris in 2015. In fact, we will most likely exceed that threshold far sooner. As a result, climate disasters are intensifying: floods, droughts, heat waves, superstorms, mega-fires and more are causing deaths, displacement and hundreds of billions dollars in damage each year. Natural disasters and weather events caused an estimated $275 billion in losses in 2022.
What needs to be done is clear. We need to shift from fossil fuels to zero carbon energy: wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, bioenergy, and nuclear, depending on the location. Countries need to interconnect their power grids with neighbors to diversify energy sources, building resilience and lowering costs. We need to shift to electric vehicles and the production of hydrogen for industrial use. We need to end deforestation by raising agricultural productivity of existing farms and managed forests.
These solutions are within reach — but there is no agreement yet on how to share the costs, which fall under three broad categories. The first are losses and damages from climate-related disasters. The second are the costs of adaptation, that is, of “weatherproofing” societies. The third is the financial burden of overhauling the energy system.
When it comes to losses and damages and adaptation, those who caused the climate crisis in the first place should help pay for those who are suffering but had little role in bringing the crisis about: Richer countries should cover most of the costs incurred by poorer ones. This, quite simply, is a matter of justice. And when it comes to overhauling the energy system, no country has the “right” to emit CO2, so all should bear the burden, though less developed countries need access to low-cost, long-term financing.
Now here is the rub. High-income countries are not doing enough to accept their fair share of responsibility for losses and damages, and adaptation costs. Nor have they taken practical steps to ensure that poorer countries have access to adequate financing for the energy transition.
The U.S. is responsible for roughly one-quarter of cumulative CO2 emissions since the start of industrialization around 1750, even though the country represents just 4% of the global population today. The world’s largest economy has emitted roughly 400 billion tons of CO2, or around 1,200 tons for each of its 330 million people, while in low-income African countries, cumulative emissions are roughly one-thousandth of those of the U.S., equal to 1 to 2 tons per person. Nonetheless, some American politicians brazenly recommend voluntary schemes to provide financing to less developed nations, an obvious and rather pathetic ploy to shift responsibility away from their government.
If rich countries were taxed just 10 cents per year for each ton of their cumulative emissions, this would amount to $100 billion per year — around $40 billion of which would be paid by the U.S. In addition, rich countries should be taxed $4 for each ton of new emissions, which would raise another $100 billion or so annually. The combined levies on past and current emissions would bring the total to $200 billion per year, with the U.S. share coming in at around $60 billion.
Yet Washington will no doubt continue to kick and scream to deny such accountability. It will claim that paying that amount per year would be far too costly — even though its annual military expenditure is equal to $1 trillion, a vastly excessive amount. In fact, with an annual gross domestic product of around $26 trillion, a levy of $60 billion per year would amount to just 0.2% of U.S. GDP, a sum easily within reach.
I firmly believe that justice will come. Global power is rebalancing between the rich and the poor, meaning that the rich world’s leeway in evading responsibility is coming to an end. This rebalancing will lead to new forms of global taxation under the U.N. Charter and supervised by the U.N. General Assembly, including levies on carbon emissions.
Yes, this change would be a rude shock to rich countries that have long imposed their will on the rest of the world. Yet the climate crisis is teaching us that all societies are interconnected and that they must accept past, present and future responsibilities. Increasing awareness of this represents the path to justice and sustainable development for all.
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