Donald Trump has made it increasingly clear that the survival of democracy in 2025 and beyond likely depends on a Democratic presidential victory in 2024.
So panic is an altogether appropriate state of mind for democrats, and Democrats, who contemplate the electoral landscape. Joe Biden’s weaknesses — his age, his failure to connect with many young voters — are similar to his shortcomings in 2020. The big difference is that he is the incumbent now and polls consistently show him struggling.
In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls, Biden’s approval rating of 38.8% is running 16.7 points below his disapproval, 55.5%. Donald Trump’s deficit is bad — but not quite Biden bad — at 14. In head-to-head matchups, Trump is often beating Biden, albeit not by much, and beating him in swing states that will determine each candidate’s tally of electoral votes.