For those betting against the world’s ability to kick its carbon addiction, the commodities boom of the past few years has provided fresh ammunition.

Tesla’s Model 3 contained 4.5 kilograms of cobalt in its power pack in 2018, materials analyst Benchmark Minerals Intelligence estimated at the time. Scale that up to the 7.8 million electric vehicles sold last year — 10% of the global market — and then project forward into a future where that share rises toward 100% and you can quickly see the world running into a supply problem.

Sure enough, prices for lithium-ion batteries rose last year for the first time since at least 2010 as materials pushed up the price, according to BloombergNEF. You would hardly be surprised if things got worse as green investments in the U.S., European Union and China ramp up over the coming years.