While officially adhering to the “One China” policy, the Philippines has been quietly expanding unofficial defense and security engagements with Taiwan, a senior government official in Manila has said, in revelations likely to anger China.
The moves come as Manila settles into a view that alliances, geography and economic interests would inevitably pull the Philippines into any potential U.S. conflict with China over the self-ruled island. Beijing claims Taiwan as a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary.
“The Philippines is slowly and unofficially drawing Taiwan into the defense architecture of the country and of the region,” the senior Philippine government source told The Japan Times on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive issues.
Manila, the source said, is ramping up exchanges with Taiwanese security officials — not only at the coast guard level, but also with the island’s “senior military leadership.”
“Right now, there are stronger military-to-military engagements with Taiwan,” the source said, noting that “unofficial,” out-of-uniform meetings, ostensibly as part of tourism visits to the democratic island, had taken place.
While the security cooperation with Taipei is not new to the Philippines — it has participated in trilateral coast guard drills also involving Japan — bilateral engagement on the military side appears to have grown more under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s administration than publicly disclosed.
“There is now a stronger push, a more deliberate effort,” the source said.
This comes as Taiwanese military observers were also present at this year’s iteration of the Balikatan U.S.-Philippine joint exercise series. Held between April 21 and May 9, the maneuvers also saw Japanese forces take part as an official contributor of personnel and equipment for the first time.
Whether Taiwanese and Philippine forces have yet to formally train together is unclear, but media reports have pointed to Taiwanese personnel also being involved in tabletop planning.
Manila has been keeping a keen eye on the Taiwan issue, seeking to reinforce its defense posture in its territory closest to the island. This has included a series of infrastructure projects planned across its far-flung northern islands — particularly the Batanes and Babuyan — that could see the buildup of airstrips and seaports.
Driven by an intensifying territorial standoff with Beijing over parts of the South China Sea, the moves are part of the Philippines’ new comprehensive archipelagic defense strategy, which is focused more on deterrence and includes areas within its exclusive economic zone.
Manila’s shifting position on Taiwan has made international headlines recently, especially after Marcos said in an interview earlier this month that his country would inevitably be dragged “kicking and screaming” into a cross-strait conflict — remarks that drew a strong rebuke from Beijing and public gratitude from Taipei.
“To be very practical about it, if there is confrontation over Taiwan between China and the United States, there is no way that the Philippines can stay out of it simply because of our physical, geographic location,” the president said.
He also said that while Manila is not preparing for war, it is ready to cooperate with partners facing the “Chinese threat.” “Why should we turn down partners who face the Chinese threat? We are not acting as a puppet state. It is our duty to defend our country,” he said.
The statement triggered a stern warning from China.
“Geographical proximity and large overseas populations are not excuses for interfering in others’ internal affairs,” China’s Foreign Ministry said, calling on the Philippines to “stop playing with fire.”
Tensions between Beijing and Manila have rapidly escalated in recent years, especially as Marcos’ stance on territorial disputes in the strategically important South China Sea has grown tougher.
The Philippine leader has been backing this up with bold moves. He has ramped-up the country’s defense capabilities while deepening defense ties with the U.S. and like-minded partners such as Japan, Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and a host of European nations.
Manila’s ties with Beijing have become increasingly strained, with talk now reportedly making the rounds that it should formally recognize Taiwan as a country — a strategy presumably meant to ramp up pressure on China to pull its vessels back from what the Philippines views as its sovereign waters.
Marcos has mainly pointed to the need to repatriate some 200,000 Philippine workers from Taiwan as the main driver for his country’s potential involvement in an emergency.
Military officials have said they do not only have troops on the nearby northern islands, but are ready to carry out noncombatant evacuation operations to bring Philippine civilians home.
“The Armed Forces of the Philippines are prepared for that,” the government source said. “In fact, it's one of the scenarios we have trained for in the Balikatan exercises.”
But a critical yet widely omitted factor in the public narrative are Manila’s obligations under its defense alliance with Washington.
“We would get drawn in because of the mutual defense treaty,” the official noted, adding that much will ultimately depend on how and if Washington stands by its obligations under the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act.
The United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but has maintained “unofficial” relations with Taiwan ever since. This includes the Taiwan Relations Act passed that same year, which mandates the provision of defensive arms, although stopping short of any formal security guarantee.
Manila, as well as other U.S. allies in the region such as Tokyo and Seoul, could be drawn in, the Philippine government source noted, arguing that China “would likely not shy away from striking U.S. military facilities in these countries.”
Another key factor would be geography, with Mavulis Island — the Philippines’ northernmost territory — sitting less than 160 kilometers from Taiwan.
“We understand that anything that happens across the Taiwan Strait will impact the security and stability of the Philippines,” the government source in Manila said.
Washington has also long been aware of this, explaining why there is a rotational U.S. troop presence on some of the islands near Taiwan. These forces, which can stay in the country for up to 179 days in a year, often partake in a series of almost consecutive military exercises to familiarize themselves with the terrain, test new capabilities and boost interoperability with their Philippine counterparts.
Enabling the deployments is the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). While the pact does not allow for permanent basing, it enables Washington to rotate troops into the Philippines for extended stays, build facilities and pre-position both equipment and supplies.
The agreement had stalled for years under former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, but this rapidly changed under Marcos, who granted U.S. forces access to four more military sites in the country — in addition to a previously agreed to five — including three in northern Luzon, the closest Philippine landmass to Taiwan, and one in Palawan, near disputed areas in the South China Sea.
While much of the public discourse has been around these facilities’ practical use to respond to natural disasters, these would also likely be the same sites that would host troops and equipment involved in a regional conflict.
“From the U.S. perspective, it's about having a foot in the country; having troops, equipment and capabilities ready in theater, in the country,” the source said.
Asked whether access and use of these EDCA sites, currently meant for U.S. and Philippine forces, could also be extended to troops of like-minded nations, such as Japan or Australia, the official emphasized this possibility.
“This is likely as some of them were already used as staging areas for other countries to deal with the aftermath of a typhoon,” the source said.
“While these sites are now for joint use only they could potentially become ‘multinational use.’”
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