While Upper House elections are often regarded as a political litmus test on the incumbent administration, the July 20 vote might assume a greater significance this time.

As the election campaigns continue, growing uncertainty over the future of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito government is giving rise to a variety of scenarios for what’s set to be a turbulent post-election season.

In a chamber with 248 seats, the majority is set at 125, with 75 of the coalition’s seats not up for reelection this time. Early surveys have indicated there is a chance the coalition might fall short of the 50 seats it needs to retain its majority.