Political turbulence is likely to shake Taiwan’s parliament over the coming months, officials from the two leading parties say, as the specter of recalls for a large number of lawmakers looms in an unprecedented attempt to end legislative gridlock.
Citizen group campaigns are underway to collect enough signatures to trigger recall votes in key districts, particularly those held by opposition Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers, that could potentially alter the balance of power in the Legislative Yuan in favor of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
“I think deep down the recall efforts are a recognition that the legislature is unable to function as it currently exists due to fundamental differences in terms of governing philosophies and how the parties envisage this country's future,” a senior DPP politician told The Japan Times on condition of anonymity.
“I think there's quorum recognition that unless something changes, politics and governance in Taiwan will remain at a standstill,” the official added.
The KMT strongly disagrees with that notion, with officials saying that the mass recall push instead reflects the DPP’s “refusal" to accept the results of the January 2024 parliamentary election and its unwillingness to “accept its reality as the minority party in the legislature.”
As of this week, recall campaigns against 34 KMT lawmakers had advanced to the second stage, according to the democratic island’s Central Election Commission, meaning that they secured the backing of more than 1% of eligible voters in their districts. KMT-backed groupings have also launched recall petitions targeting 12 DPP legislators, but these have yet to clear the first stage as a number of signatures were disqualified.
Before a recall vote can take place, though, another campaign round is required in which the signatures of at least 10% of eligible voters in each district need to be collected within 60 days.
In Taiwan, only 79 of the Legislative Yuan’s 113 lawmakers directly elected by their constituencies can be recalled. This means that, although the KMT holds 52 seats in the legislature, compared with 51 for the DPP, a maximum of 39 KMT legislators and 38 from the DPP could theoretically lose their seats. To recall a legislator, a turnout rate of over 25% and a simple majority are required.
The ruling and opposition parties have been increasingly at loggerheads — and sometimes literally at each other’s throats — since the January 2024 elections, when the DPP won the presidential vote but lost control of the legislature to the KMT and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP). This was the first time in 16 years, and just the second in Taiwan’s democratic history, that the island has had a divided government.
The list of disagreements is long and has affected almost all branches and departments, ranging from differences over the budget and the composition of the Constitutional Court to the nomination of key government officials.
An underlying factor is their fundamental disagreement over how to deal with China, with the DPP aiming for increased autonomy and security through closer relations with Washington and like-minded democracies, while the KMT and TPP have sought to return to a policy of engagement with Beijing.
The level of intraparty animosity is so high that brawls have repeatedly broken out in parliament as the government and opposition try to block each other from physically participating in voting on bills.
“Tensions are pretty high,” said DPP legislator Puma Shen, who once had to be taken to a hospital after a scuffle. “We used to have discussions followed by negotiations, but right now none of that is happening.”
The DPP has accused the opposition of seeking to not only expand the power of the legislature but also to undermine the government of President Lai Ching-te, hampering his ability to introduce key changes, including bills related to energy as well as economic and social policies such as housing, wages and pensions.
“Basically, they want to paralyze this administration, cripple it,” DPP legislator Chen Kuan-Ting said in an interview.
“The opposition wants to make this administration seem as if it cannot govern well, probably in the hope that this will improve their own chances at the upcoming general elections in three years,” Chen said.
The KMT has countered that it doesn't see its role as being part of a legislature that blindly approves DPP funding requests without proper consideration.
“The notion that not acting as a rubber-stamp parliament equates to a lack of patriotism should be strongly condemned,” KMT director for international affairs Alexander Huang told The Japan Times, calling proposals to recall the KMT legislators “an “insult” to the island’s democratic system.
While the executive has traditionally been the dominant branch of government in Taiwanese politics, experts say the opposition-led legislature is currently challenging that precedent, stress-testing the constitutional system, pointing to a KMT push to increase the number of members required by the Constitutional Court to pass rulings.
The institutional design of Taiwan's government means that if the two branches can't agree, for instance on nominees, a commission cannot fully function, and “there is currently no incentive for the legislature to move quickly to approve or reject nominees,” said Simona Grano, of the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis.
She noted that the opposition has, for instance, blocked the nomination of some of Lai's nominees, including for the National Communications Commission, which regulates Taiwan's broadcast media; the Fair Trade Commission, and the Central Election Commission, which runs Taiwan's elections — as well as the Constitutional Court, calling the situation a “de-facto paralysis.”
One key area of disagreement between the parties has been the national budget, with the DPP accusing the KMT-TPP alliance of placing a hold on 34% of discretionary spending. The KMT has downplayed the scale, stating that the opposition has only cut 3% of the proposed budget, with the remaining funds simply being frozen under the expectation that these will be released within the coming months subject to the government providing more documentation.
“Our lawmakers can only cut or freeze the budget, so if parts of it have been frozen, then this is simply to make the executive branch provide more info to justify increasing the spending,” Huang said.
The budget issues have also extended to the military. Although defense expenditures are technically still higher than last year at around 2.5% of gross domestic product, the DPP has accused the opposition of having frozen funds for key programs, including 50% of the money due this year for the island’s indigenous submarine prototype — the first of a planned fleet of eight locally developed and produced subs.
In light of the growing schism in parliament, experts say the magnitude of the latest recall campaigns effectively amounts to the public taking into its own hands what the executive branch lacks the power to do, such as the right to veto or dissolve the legislature through a vote of no confidence and call for new elections.
“While there have been attempts at recalling legislators before, this never took place in the context of attempting to recall the entire legislature,” said Brian Hioe, a freelance journalist and a founding editor of New Bloom magazine.
In the past, this only happened to those who were perceived as the worst of the lot, which makes the present circumstances “historically unprecedented,” he said.
At this stage it’s unclear whether the recall campaign will result in the DPP regaining a parliamentary majority. But what is clear is that, regardless of the outcome, Taiwanese domestic politics will likely remain as fractured as ever as the ruling and opposition parties see little to no room for compromise heading into the 2026 local elections.
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