Taiwan is heading for its most open, yet unpredictable, presidential election — one that could have a dramatic impact on U.S.-China ties after Foxconn founder Terry Gou became the fourth candidate to enter the race, an entry likely to siphon support from other opposition candidates.
Announcing his intention Monday to run for the Taiwanese presidency, the tech billionaire pledged to bring Taiwan “back from the abyss” and unleashed attacks on the “corrupt and incompetent” government run by the Democratic Progressive Party, while reiterating a call for a grand alliance with the opposition to counter the DPP.
“I implore the people of Taiwan to give me four years. I promise that I will bring peace to the Taiwan Strait for the next 50 years and lay the deepest foundation of mutual trust between the two sides,” Gou said, adding that his policy priorities will focus on cross-strait peace, international relations, economic development and technological advancement.
In a Washington Post editorial last month, Gou advocated for stronger trade ties with China and the resumption of cross-strait talks, while lambasting the DPP and its presidential candidate, front-runner Lai Ching-te, as harbingers of war.
Experts said that by throwing his hat in the ring for the January election, Gou’s entry would further split votes for the opposition pan-blue camp, and help increase the odds of Lai succeeding current President Tsai Ing-wen.
The colors blue and green have traditionally been associated with two distinct political camps in Taiwanese politics, with the blue camp favoring dual Chinese and Taiwanese identity and friendly exchanges with the mainland, while the green camp, dominated by the DPP, favors an exclusive Taiwanese identity and a more cautious approach to the mainland’s intentions.
Four months before the election, it remains too early to forecast Lai as the winner. “But one thing is certain: If Gou’s campaign continues to the end, and no non-DPP joint ticket is formed, the victory of (the) DPP’s Lai will be guaranteed,” said Zhu Zhiqun, an international relations professor at Bucknell University.
Others say Gou will have a tough time attracting voters who originally planned to support the DPP or Lai. The Foxconn chief’s past comments have “alienated voters with more progressive values,” said Dafydd Fell, director of the Center of Taiwan Studies at SOAS University of London. Rather, he added, Gou attracts both nonpartisans who had previously preferred former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je and traditional dark blue voters who take an anti-independence stance.
Saying now is the time for entrepreneurs to lead the island, Gou has touted his executive experience and business background — and his status as the sole candidate with this kind of know-how. Experts say this represents his biggest campaign strength.
As founder of tech giant Foxconn, which has a large manufacturing footprint in China, Gou is known to have close business ties with the world's second-largest economy. Fell said Gou is believed to be the most pro-mainland among the opposition candidates, and his business experience might naturally appeal to voters fed up with traditional politics.
During his announcement event, Gou also made bold promises about Taiwan’s economic slowdown, caused by a decline in chip exports, vowing to double the economic growth rate and make Taiwan’s GDP the highest per capita in Asia, overtaking Singapore within 20 years.
However, his biggest advantage – having never held elected office – might also turn out to be his campaign’s most glaring weakness.
One key challenge for him will be convincing skeptical voters that he can stave off Beijing’s attempts to exert pressure or influence over him and steer the country through heightening geopolitical tensions amid China’s growing assertiveness in its claim to the self-ruled island.
Gou has denied that his extensive business interests in China could put him under Beijing’s thumb.
Speaking at Monday’s event, he said that “no foreign investor will dare to invest” if China were to confiscate the assets of Foxconn due to his presidential bid.
“Gou has to show that he can handle Taiwan’s foreign policy at an uncertain time, despite the fact that he has no experience in this regard,” said Ian Chong, an associate political science professor at the National University of Singapore.
Chong said Gou must also display his determination to “put Taiwanese voters first and foremost, rather than his commercial interests in the mainland” if he hopes to dispel these concerns, while also convincing voters his mainland-friendly leanings are something that can guarantee Taiwan’s future prosperity.
Despite seemingly endless cashflow, Gou’s lack of a mature party apparatus to support him in the campaign will also be a weakness in the race, and can make a huge difference when it comes to voting behavior, Fell said.
Although the tycoon fashions himself as the best chance for unity among the opposition, Gou will face significant challenges in attempting to form any kind of grand alliance, experts said.
Zhu said Gou would suffer a trust deficit in terms of his ability to be “credible and consistent” among voters – and even inside the main opposition Kuomintang, his former party, after he reneged on a promise to back the KMT’s official candidate, current New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih, thus making the cooperation between Gou and KMT difficult to imagine.
Gou’s run for president might have been prompted by a grudge against the KMT after failing to become its nominee this year.
In response to Gou’s entry, the KMT called the Foxconn chief’s decision “extremely regrettable” and reminded him of his broken promise.
“If Gou really wanted to unite the opposition, he could have agreed to be the vice presidential candidate for either Ko or the KMT or proposed to be parliamentary speaker,” Fell added, though it remains to be seen if Ko and Hou will be able to put aside their differences. Even more of an issue, Fell said, is the question of whether their supporters would vote for a joint ticket.
But before all of this, Gou must first qualify for the ballot. As an independent candidate, he must gather enough public signatures — 1.5% of the voting population in Taiwan as stipulated by election law, which is about 290,000 signatures.
Fell said it would be easy for Gou to get enough signatures. But things could also get tricky for him, noted Zhu, who said chances are good that many pan-blue voters who loosely align their stance with the blue camp, as well as Gou’s presumed supporters, who are sick of the pan-blue camp split, might choose not to endorse him.
“While on the other hand, (the) DPP — skillful at electioneering — may encourage its supporters to sign off on the Gou candidacy as a way to further split the pan-Blue camp,” he said.
A recent opinion poll shows that in a four-way race, support for Lai would stand at 40.1%, Ko would have 16.6%, and Hou 15.6%, with Gou trailing at 12%.
“A clearer picture of support will only emerge after Gou is able to let his campaign message sink in with voters more,” NUS’s Chong said. "At present, it seems more about Gou’s personality.”
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