China ‘learning lessons’ from Ukraine invasion, NATO chief says in Tokyo

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that China is “watching closely and learning lessons” from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that could influence Beijing’s future decisions as the balance of power shifts in the Indo-Pacific.

“What is happening in Europe today, could happen in East Asia tomorrow,” Stoltenberg said Wednesday at Keio University in Tokyo, stressing the need for Japan and like-minded countries to work together with the alliance to uphold and defend the rules-based international order.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin were to win the war, it would send a message that Moscow and Beijing can achieve their goals using brute force, according to the NATO chief.

“This would make the world more dangerous and us more vulnerable,” he said.

Working with partners around the world — especially in the Indo-Pacific — is part of the answer to this more dangerous and unpredictable world, he added.

Stoltenberg noted that while China is “not NATO’s adversary,” the country was becoming a "more and more authoritarian power," displaying assertive behavior and implementing coercive policies that have security consequences for both the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.

Beijing, he said, is substantially building up its military forces without any transparency, including nuclear and long-range weapons that could reach NATO members, while also attempting to assert control over the South China Sea and Taiwan.

In terms of Beijing’s growing strategic partnership with Russia, Stoltenberg expressed concerns about the deepening of this relationship, including closer defense ties, military exercises and joint naval and air patrols near Japan.

Arguing that “security is not regional but global,” the NATO chief said that having friends is “essential,” adding that, among NATO’s partners, “none is closer or more capable than Japan.”

Stoltenberg emphasized that ties with Tokyo are set to extend to new areas and domains such as cyberspace, outer space and critical and emerging technologies.

He also welcomed Japan’s recent review of its national security policy, which includes plans to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, bringing it in line with NATO’s standard.

“This demonstrates that Japan takes its national security seriously,” he said, adding that the move makes Tokyo “an even more powerful partner for peace.”

On Tuesday, Stoltenberg held talks with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, with both sides agreeing to further deepen the Japan-NATO partnership, as the military alliance is seeking more support for Ukraine and Tokyo is looking for like-minded partners to tackle the growing military challenges posed by China and North Korea.

Besides agreeing on new areas of defense cooperation and discussing plans to make Japan’s mission to NATO an independent body, they welcomed progress toward Tokyo transitioning into NATO’s new Individually Tailored Partnership Program. The program is expected to help both sides share military expertise and increase interoperability.

Sebastian Maslow, a Japanese security expert and lecturer at Sendai Shirayuri Women’s College, said these ongoing discussions were likely to include areas such as increased intelligence-sharing, logistical support and defense-industrial cooperation.

According to the International Security Industry Council of Japan, a defense industry grouping, the deteriorating security environment in the Indo-Pacific has highlighted the need for strengthened interoperability among NATO and partner nations like Japan — including in terms of equipment and closer integration among national defense industrial bases.

Before traveling to Tokyo, Stoltenberg visited South Korea, where he urged allies and partners, including Seoul, to provide more assistance to Ukraine to help bring Russia to the negotiation table.

Just like South Korea, Japan has provided nonlethal aid to Ukraine but has not sent weapons due to defense guidelines that effectively ban arms exports. A move by Seoul could impact any similar decision by Tokyo in the future, Maslow said.

Experts view Stoltenberg’s visit to Japan and South Korea as emblematic of the growing importance of the region in NATO's strategic thinking and of just how eager both sides are to deepen cooperation based on common security interests.

“NATO is, of course, focused on the Atlantic, yet the organization perceives one of the main challenges to the international order to be China,” said James D.J. Brown, an associate professor of political science at Temple University Japan.

“To address this challenge, closer ties with Asian countries have become a priority for the military alliance,” he said.

At the same time, the visit fits with Tokyo’s goal of establishing security relations that extend beyond its alliance with the U.S.

“Other than Australia and India, NATO and its member countries are the most obvious partners for Japan in fulfilling this goal,” Brown added.

Whereas in the past, Japan-NATO cooperation was mainly focused on post-conflict measures, the current dialogue is clearly focused on enhancing deterrence, Maslow said, calling China’s actions in the region and Russia’s war in Ukraine the main causes of this shift.

Observers say that the immediate goal of the partnership will not be large-scale military cooperation but rather more frequent and regular forms of dialogue to show this is not just an ad hoc response to current security threats but a more fundamental change.

According to Maslow, Japan has prompted a global shift in the security discourse toward the Indo-Pacific in response to China’s growing international influence, and by doing so provided NATO with a new agenda.

“NATO has embraced the Indo-Pacific as a new geostrategic space,” he said. “Connecting the trans-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific alliances and building a strong security architecture in response to China has become the underlying theme behind the Japan-NATO cooperation.”

As for stepping up support for Ukraine, Brown said that while Tokyo may provide more financial assistance and nonlethal aid, and possibly add to its sanctions on Russia, weapon deliveries are highly unlikely anytime soon.

“Japan is on a long journey toward becoming a military actor comparable to some of NATO's European members,” he said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated its movement in this direction, but Tokyo has not reached that destination quite yet, he said. It requires legal changes and greater support from the Japanese public.

Considering the country’s pacifist Constitution, Japanese politicians are also well aware of the particular political hurdles they would have to overcome to make such changes.

“Forcing such a debate would trigger domestic opposition, which might cause Kishida’s current efforts to adjust Japan’s security posture to derail,” Maslow said, noting that lawmakers are already divided over how to finance the planned defense spending hike.

However, a debate about reforming Japan’s weapon export regulations is expected in the coming months.

And as other NATO members and partners step up their support, Maslow said that Japan will certainly be under pressure, as Kishida chairs a Group of Seven meeting in Hiroshima in May.