Why Japan has been taking incremental steps to reopen its borders

Frustration, anger and, for Japan’s struggling tourism industry, what could amount to a missed opportunity.

The Group of Seven’s strictest border rules have been eased in slow, incremental steps, much to the chagrin of foreign nationals who have been waiting for the rules to be lifted on par with other major economies.

Even when the country decided to welcome in foreign tourists, the government made sure that foreign travelers wouldn’t flood in, keeping roadblocks like visas and, initially, pre-arrival PCR testing in place.

After nudging the door open with strict, guided tours and then tourists booking trips through travel agencies, Japan is finally set to welcome all types of tourists after nearly 2½ years of COVID-19 restrictions.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters in New York on Thursday that Japan will allow visa-free, independent tourism and abolish a daily arrival cap as of Oct. 11.

Tourists will need to be vaccinated three times or submit a negative COVID-19 test result ahead of their trip, Kyodo News reported ahead of the announcement, citing government sources.

On the same day, the government will also launch a nationwide travel discount program, which had been shelved due to the spread of COVID-19 infections.

But the decision to ease entry requirements is not without potential political pitfalls for the prime minister, with the reopening of borders coming at a key moment for the Kishida administration.

Kotaro Toriumi, an aviation and travel analyst, says the prime minister is likely concerned that reopening borders may cause his support rate to slide further.

The Kishida administration is battling falling approval ratings over various issues, including former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s controversial state funeral, links between ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers and the Unification Church, and the sluggish economy.

“Amid his falling support rate, Kishida is considering whether lifting borders will be beneficial or not,” Toriumi said.

According to an NHK poll conducted earlier this month, Kishida’s approval rating was 40%, down from 46% in August, and the lowest since he took office in October last year. In the same poll, 58% of the respondents said they felt positive about the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, unchanged from the previous month, suggesting that the public is mostly on board with Kishida’s virus countermeasures.

Kishida initially hoped to make an announcement to allow nonguided tourists into the country in late August, but cautious bureaucrats opposed the idea, saying they need to make sure they have enough manpower to handle an influx of travelers at airports.

In the end, Kishida made the announcement about a week later.

“We needed to make sure that we have enough staff at airports to deal with the rising number of daily arrivals,” a government official said at the time.

But in the eyes of Toriumi, the easing of border measures is coming too late.

“It’s all too slow and too cautious, when there is a chance to benefit from the weak yen,” Toriumi said. “Border measures should be eased if the spread of infection has calmed and tightened when it is spreading. But that hasn’t been the case.

“Japan is one lap behind Southeast Asia and two laps behind Western countries” on tourism, he said.

Timeline of Japan’s COVID-19 border restrictions

Jan. 31, 2020: Japan bans the entry of foreign nationals arriving from China’s Hubei province, the first entry ban imposed due to the coronavirus. The ban was gradually expanded to 24 countries through the end of March.

April 1: Less than a month after the spread of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, Japan halts entries into the country by foreign nationals, including foreign residents of Japan, from 49 countries, including the U.S., the U.K. and South Korea, bringing the total number up to 73 nations.

May 14: Japan expands its entry ban to cover a total of 100 countries and regions.

Aug. 28: The entry ban is expanded further to cover 159 countries and regions.

Sept. 1: Japan lifts ban on re-entry of foreign residents.

Oct. 1: Japan lifts its ban on entry by foreign nationals planning to relocate to the country.

Dec. 28: Japan again implements a ban on the entry of nonresident foreign nationals.

Jan. 14, 2021: Japan suspends a business-track travel program with some countries and mandates that all people arriving in the country quarantine at home for 14 days.

Nov. 8: Japan opens its borders to foreign students, interns and other business travelers.

Nov. 30: Japan bans the entry of nonresident foreign nationals after the discovery of the highly contagious omicron variant.

March 1, 2022: Japan allows foreign nationals arriving for purposes other than tourism to enter the country.

June 1: Japan raises daily arrival cap to 20,000.

June 10: Japan allows entry of foreign tourists on guided tours.

Sept. 7: Pre-arrival PCR tests are dropped for travelers who have received three shots of an approved COVID-19 vaccine. Japan also raises the daily arrival cap to 50,000 and allows entry of foreign tourists on nonguided tours.