Call it the first humanitarian empire. For a moment, look beyond the horrific slaughter and the terrible plight of ethnic Albanian refugees. The immediate crisis obscures a host of profound long-term -- and largely unintended consequences -- of the current Balkan intervention that will impact U.S. foreign policy for years to come.
First, there are the complications from the bombing campaign and Belgrade's ethnic cleansing of nearly 1 million refugees. These ethnic Albanians are scattered across Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro. All of the host countries are poor with little capacity to sustain large numbers of refugees. Just sustaining the victims of this war -- whether as refugees or orchestrating their return to Kosovo -- will be a Herculean task for NATO countries. Already, U.S. President Bill Clinton has asked Congress for $6 billion for the war and humanitarian assistance.
Then there is the larger question of the fate of Kosovo, and most likely Montenegro, the other remaining province of the former Yugoslavia. These will both likely be wards of NATO for much of the next decade. And don't forget Bosnia. Only NATO forces have kept fighting from recurring there. More than three years after the Dayton accord, there is little substantive progress toward Bosnia becoming a multiethnic state. Indeed, the war may destabilize Bosnia as well.