Some of the world’s top investors are betting the worst of the dollar’s rampage is over after the surge upended the global economy in ways that had few parallels in modern history.
Having skyrocketed to generational highs last year — deepening poverty and turbocharging inflation from Pakistan to Ghana — the currency has now entered what some forecasters are calling the start of a multiyear decline.
Investors say the dollar is on the way down because the bulk of U.S. Federal Reserve rate increases is over, and virtually every other currency will strengthen as their central banks keep tightening. While recent data has led traders to rethink how high U.S. rates will go, a shift to risk assets from equities to emerging markets is already under way on bets that the greenback’s strength will ease. Many investors are sticking with these bets, even after the greenback recently recouped its losses for the year, raising the stakes for dollar bears.