OSAKA -- Despite the pall of fear hanging over the travel industry as a result of the recent terrorist attacks in the United States and the likelihood that increased insurance premiums will result in the closure of several airlines, representatives of the international tourism industry have predicted a swift recovery from the global crisis.

Speaking at the Millennium Conference of the 14th General Assembly of the World Tourism Organization in Osaka on Sunday, the organization's Secretary General Francesco Frangialli reminded some 700 delegates from 118 countries that tourism has shown great resilience in the wake of previous catastrophes.

"Our experience over the last decade during the Gulf War and the war in Kosovo has proven that tourism is an industry that has great strength," said Frangialli.

"If people are frightened to go to one part of the world, they go to another part and they take trips closer to home. But they still travel. Since the end of the second world war, there has never been a year of negative growth in the tourism industry."

However, Richard Gordon of the Philippine Department of Tourism was less optimistic.

Gordon pointed out that cancellations and other yardsticks of travel have reached between 30 and 60 percent in different parts of the world.

"Our industry is taking a big hit because of terrorism, perhaps more than any other industry," he said.

"Fear, or concern for safety, is the most powerful deterrent to travel," Gordon said. "And this is what the terrorists have squarely implanted in most of us. The sense that this conference should serve as a defining moment for the world travel and tourism industry remains. But now we are called upon to shape tourism's future in a world much changed."

Prior to the Sept. 11 incidents, world tourism was running 3 percent higher than in 2000, when travelers generated about $476 billion for the global economy and made tourism the largest industry in the world.

Although analysts have lowered their predictions of 5 percent growth in 2001 to 1.5 percent, they say their long-term forecasts for the industry remain the same. "By the year 2020, tourists will have conquered every part of the globe as well as engaging in low-orbit space tours, and maybe even the moon," said Dawid de Villiers, the organization's deputy secretary general.

"Our Tourism 2020 Vision study forecasts that the number of international arrivals worldwide will increase to almost 1.6 billion. This is 2.5 times the volume recorded in the late 1990s."

He also predicted that by 2020, China would overtake Europe as the top tourist destination and that people would be traveling farther and more often.

"Multiple holidays, rather than extending the length of the main holiday, will be the major trend," said de Villiers.

"The dramatic increase in the multiplication of short holidays in Europe, North America and recently Asia illustrates this trend."

One of the highlights of Sunday's proceedings was the reading of a message from former South African President Nelson Mandela.

While noting the value of tourism for the economies of developing countries, he cautioned that it should have a humanitarian dimension.

"Unguided and opportunistic tourism can have a profound negative impact on the environment as well as on the social and cultural patterns for developing countries . . . and can lead to the exploitation of people, particularly women and children," Mandela said.

During a meeting in Seoul on Thursday, the organization adopted a resolution expressing solidarity with the people of the U.S. and condemning the terrorist attacks.

The organization also established committees on safety and security and sought means of assisting member states.

Frangialli noted that destinations in the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa have been hit particularly hard in recent weeks, in spite of being thousands of kilometers away from the atrocities inflicted on the U.S.