Will a newly elected Liberal Democratic Party president follow predecessors in dissolving the Lower House and calling a snap election soon after clinching the country’s top leadership role?
An electoral victory in the Lower House is seen as the only way to break the current deadlock of a minority government in parliament.
But things might be more complicated this time around. During the first four days of debate, all five candidates in the party leadership race have voiced skepticism on the topic — starting with the two front-runners.
“It’s inconceivable,” said former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, referring to such a snap election for the Lower House, after she formally submitted her candidacy for the party leadership election on Monday. “At this stage, there are several things we can do to tackle inflation as well as steps we can take for the future.”
On the same day, agriculture minister Shinjiro Koizumi hinted of his view that it’s no time for an early election.
”What the public is seeking is political action on rising prices, public safety issues and social security matters, and a commitment to moving forward to address their immediate concerns,” he said in a televised debate.
Typically, a new president — riding a wave of popularity and following wide coverage of the party presidential election — would dissolve the Lower House and endeavor to win back a majority.
However, the party’s current standing doesn’t allow for such optimism.
"Dissolving the Lower House because of high approval ratings only serves the LDP,” former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi said last week, hinting that the government should focus on passing a supplementary budget in the fall before pondering any such move.
The LDP has lost three consecutive elections in less than a year — the Lower House election, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election and, most recently, the Upper House election.
The party also needs external support from the opposition to make its newly elected leader the prime minister — although coordination among the opposition remains weak, making prospects of a non-LDP prime minister limited for now.
With parties like Sanseito and the Democratic Party for the People having seized upon mounting popular discontent, the chances those in power can make a breakthrough anytime soon are slim — regardless of who leads the LDP.
Moves to expand the coalition to include a third party might come with discussions and preelectoral agreements on candidates for single-seat districts. Over 25 years into their alliance, the LDP and Komeito have fine-tuned a mechanism to avoid all-out clashes in such districts.
Asked about the possibility of a snap election in the fall, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito noted that the coalition has other things to prioritize first.
"We have so many policy issues piling up,” Saito said. “We have to hold thorough debates in parliament and provide the basis for sound decision-making."
In the past, newly elected LDP presidents would call an early snap vote to strengthen their power base even if they already held majorities in parliament.
In October 2021, only hours into his mandate, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he would dissolve the Lower House 10 days later. In that election, the LDP-Komeito coalition maintained its solid majority in the chamber, despite losing 14 seats.
Almost four years had passed since the previous Lower House election, meaning that the lawmakers’ terms had been nearing their end soon anyway. A vote to renew the composition of the lower chamber is required once every four years, but the prime minister is given discretion in calling a snap election.
Three years later, contradicting remarks he’d made during the leadership election, new incumbent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would dissolve the Lower House just days into his mandate.
Ishiba received intense criticism for this fumbling, which led to surprisingly low initial approval ratings.
The LDP-Komeito lost its majority in the chamber, with the LDP hemorrhaging over 5 million votes in comparison to the 2021 election. That bruising defeat severely thwarted Ishiba’s agenda over the course of the following year, forcing the administration to make political compromises with the opposition in parliament.
The recent debacle in the Upper House only exacerbated Ishiba’s perilous standing. Calls to oust Ishiba mounted, leading to an early resignation.
At this stage, Lower House lawmakers are less than one year into their four-year term, making it hard to justify a sudden move by a newly elected prime minister. Efforts are expected to concentrate on solidifying support in parliament and stabilizing the government.
“Before talking about a potential dissolution, we have to accomplish something first,” former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi said earlier this month, while stressing the need to rethink the composition of the current coalition.
While momentum for an early general election remains weak at this stage, Ishiba’s example in 2024 illustrates that, once they obtain power, leaders often prioritize their own political interest, walking back on earlier commitments.
“On Lower House dissolution, prime ministers can lie,” goes an old saying in Nagatacho, the country’s political center.
Will that be the case this time?
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