Conservative members of the Liberal Democratic Party are aiming to elect a new leader more aligned to them in the party’s presidential election on Oct. 4, but with two former economic security ministers — Takayuki Kobayashi and Sanae Takaichi — who are considered right-leaning planning to run, their votes are expected to be split.
Kobayashi, 50, said Thursday he will “take the lead and run in the LDP presidential election.” It will be his second presidential attempt.
“My colleagues and I share a sense of fear for our country’s future,” Kobayashi told reporters. “I want to make Japan a country where the middle class, young generations and working-age people can be more energetic, dream and hope about the future.”
His remarks came after a gathering of his own study group, launched in December to discuss mid- to long-term national policies and build support following his unsuccessful bid in last year’s contest that elected the incumbent LDP president, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Twenty-five sitting LDP parliamentarians participated in the gathering, including Yasutaka Nakasone, director of the party’s youth division who backed Kobayashi in last year’s contest, as well as veterans such as Yasukazu Hamada, chairman of the LDP’s Lower House steering committee, and Junichi Ishii, the party’s parliamentary affairs head in the Upper House.
Hours after Kobayashi announced his bid, a close aide of Takaichi — who lost to Ishiba in a runoff by 21 votes last year — told reporters that she has decided to run, after she and her supporters held a meeting last night. It will be her third presidential attempt.
Both Kobayashi and Takaichi are expected to hold news conferences next week to formally announce their bids and campaign pledges.
But hurdles remain for both of them.
Their first challenge is to collect the necessary 20 signatures from lawmakers to officially endorse their candidacies. Many conservative lawmakers — especially those who used to be members of a party faction led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that got embroiled in a political funds scandal — either lost their seats in two national elections under Ishiba’s leadership or have retired.
Kobayashi has yet to collect the 20 signatures he needs but said on Thursday he is confident he can secure even more than that number. This is despite the fact that eight of the 20 lawmakers who supported Kobayashi’s last bid have either lost their seats or retired.
Takaichi, 64, has also lost nine of the 20 lawmakers who supported her last bid.
Despite their confidence in securing the necessary signatures, nothing is certain until they formally file their candidacies with the LDP’s election panel.
Should farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, also run in the election, he could deprive Kobayashi of support from young LDP members and dent Takaichi’s popularity within the party.
Another hurdle comes in the form of heavyweights in both the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito.
The possibility of a conservative leader being elected is concerning to former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who has warned against the “rise of right-wing parties” as in the U.S. He is urging LDP lawmakers to vote in the presidential election in a way that reaffirms the party’s stance as a moderate conservative party.
“If the Liberal Democratic Party — once an inclusive and moderate conservative party — continues to decline, there is a chance that Japan could follow a similar trend,” Kishida said Wednesday in a gathering of party lawmakers.
Kishida credits the votes from himself and members of a faction he used to lead for Ishiba’s victory against Takaichi in last year’s presidential election runoff. In this year’s election, any candidate who aligns themselves with Kishida can gain an upper hand as well.
Tetsuo Saito — the leader of Komeito, long considered a pacifist party — has also raised similar concerns. On Sunday, he told reporters that his party, which has partnered with the LDP since 1999, cannot form a coalition government with any party that doesn’t align itself with its moderate conservative policies.
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