The next Liberal Democratic Party president will be chosen through a "full-scale vote," with the party’s grassroots base and its sitting parliamentarians holding the same weight in the first round, the party said Tuesday.
As a result, full mobilization of the party’s network will give the upper hand to candidates who enjoy high popularity with the party’s rank-and-file members, and in turn, the public.
Candidates will contest for a total of 590 votes — 295 for incumbent party lawmakers from both houses of parliament and 295 proportionally assigned to grassroots members affiliated with prefectural chapters.
“We must make this leadership race a restart for the party, a fresh first step, something that is convincing both to the party and to the country at large,” presidential election committee Chairman Ichiro Aisawa told reporters Tuesday.
Campaigning will kick off on Sept. 22, with a final vote on Oct. 4. It’s the first time the party has chosen to fully involve its party base for a presidential election held in the midst of the leader’s term, Aisawa said.
Since Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his decision to step down from the party’s leadership Sunday, the race to succeed him has intensified. Those who lost the 2024 race to Ishiba are now taking center stage.
So far, Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, who used to lead his now-disbanded faction, is the only candidate who has formally announced his intention to run. On Monday evening, he reportedly met with some of the parliamentarians who supported his bid last year.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi is also widely expected to enter the race. Hayashi, who served in a leadership position within former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s now-defunct faction, met with Kishida on Monday.
The full-scale vote, however, could work against the two. In last year’s presidential election, out of the 368 votes assigned to the party’s prefectural chapters, Motegi and Hayashi got 13 and 27, respectively.
Other long-time presidential hopefuls with high name recognition are keeping their cards hidden for now.
Former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi has yet to go public about a potential entry into the race.
Questioned about his intention to run for the presidency Tuesday, farm minister Shinjiiro Koizumi was noncommittal.
“I will consider what I can do to unite the party and make a decision,” he told a news conference.
In a JNN poll conducted over the weekend, an equal share of respondents — 19.3% — chose Koizumi and Takaichi as their top picks for the next prime minister. The two have a considerable lead over the others.
Candidates popular with the public, who are expected to win the lion’s share of local votes, will have the upper hand in the first round of voting.
In the previous election, Takaichi won 109 of the local votes, surpassing Ishiba’s 108. Koizumi obtained 61, the third-highest score among the nine candidates at the time.
However, the proportional weight of the lawmakers would grow in a potential runoff, inevitably pushing candidates to secure a majority to seize the race.
Despite scant support from his peers, Ishiba made it to a runoff last year owing to a strong showing among the party’s regional chapters. He then grabbed the leadership only after winning the hearts of his fellow lawmakers — thanks to the support of two former prime ministers, Kishida and Yoshihide Suga.
Another 2024 presidential hopeful, Takayuki Kobayashi, will also be closely watched.
He avoided giving a clear answer when asked about whether he intends to run for party president in a TBS program on Monday.
“We are now at a juncture where the party must unite and stand together for the greater goal of the country’s revival,” Kobayashi said. “As a politician, I will consider what I can do and what kind of role I can fulfill.”
Presidential hopefuls need to secure at least 20 signatures from their fellow lawmakers to file their candidacy.
As a result of two consecutive defeats in national elections, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition is a minority government. This means the newly elected LDP president will need to secure the backing of the opposition to be appointed prime minister.
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