The recent wave of North Korean missile tests and other military provocations has sparked a flurry of supposition about the country’s motivation.
Much of this speculation, however, shares a common flaw: the assumption that North Korea’s actions should be understood in connection to external rather than internal factors.
Some see the tests as a response to recent South Korea-U.S. military drills and an effort to perfect North Korea’s defensive capabilities. Others claim they are part of leader Kim Jong Un’s strategy to win concessions from the outside world by creating a crisis that he can then defuse in exchange for certain benefits. Some see it as part of an offensive tactic intended to pressure the South and pave the way for eventual conquest. Still others put the Ukraine War at the heart of the story, claiming that Kim is inspired by the success of Putin’s nuclear threats in Ukraine and feels confident that the war will prevent any substantial response against the North.