Three months after Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the war is entering a new phase. This change requires all involved — the Kremlin as well as Kyiv and its supporters in the West — to rethink scenarios, goals and strategies.
For the aggressor, it appears, all possible outcomes are shades of terrible — a sign of just how colossally Moscow miscalculated. For the defenders, most scenarios are also dire. But one offers a glimmer of hope.
Phase 1 of the war, starting on Feb. 24, might be called "Shock Without Awe." Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his army to invade, bomb and destroy Ukraine from all sides and to kill his counterpart in Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. By shocking Ukrainians, Putin was expecting to awe them into submission.