When will the global stock bubble burst? The higher stock markets rise, the bigger the fear that what goes up must come down. It is just a question of when. Once I asked one of my hedge fund friends how he became so rich. He answered, “I always sell too early.” So much wiser than most of us who are stuck worrying about having bought too late.
Japan’s is still the undisputed No. 1 bubble in history. At the peak, Japan’s stock market capitalization was bigger than America’s, despite the economy being less than half in size. All the valuation metrics were stretched to never-seen-before levels. For example, the Nikkei’s price-to-earnings ratio stood at 90 times or six-times above the historic average of 15 times.
Land prices rose to stratospheric levels. Famously, the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo were worth more than all of California. And just to get through the door of a Ginza nightclub cost ¥1 million, followed by another ¥1 million for a bottle of champagne once you arrived at your table. When the bubble burst, Japan destroyed more wealth than it had destroyed during the Pacific War.