A small nation on Asia’s periphery packed a powerful message for the global economy this week: Don't get carried away by the good news on vaccine development. Central banks are miles from the exit ramp for the tremendous stimulus they’ve pumped into the economy. If anything, increased support is far more likely.
On Monday, Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE were hailed for the "extraordinary” results of their experimental vaccine, sending markets soaring. Investors revived bets on a reflating global economy and even began to sniff out rate hikes. Two days later, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said there's a long way to go before a vaccine helps the world get through the COVID-19 catastrophe. In case anyone missed the point, officials rolled out a program offering cheap loans to banks to juice the economy.
To think officials are about to contemplate scaling back is to miss big shifts in monetary practice since the pandemic and lessons from the previous recovery. Expectations of hale employment and hitting inflation targets won’t be good enough this time. Policy makers from Washington to Wellington want to actually see good stuff happen.