Around the world, people are itching to end lockdowns. Traffic is rising in the United Kingdom, and garden centers and hardware shops have reopened. In a handful of U.S. states, hair stylists are back at work and restaurants and movie theaters have opened. Germans are shopping again, although many remain wary of the risks.
That caution is well-advised. The example of China, as well as epidemiologic models attuned to the longer-term aspects of the pandemic, suggests that most nations are many months away from anything like normal, even with continued social distancing. In the United States, realistic scenarios include the chance of a new winter epidemic, as well as sporadic outbreaks further on.
It is a little depressing, stuck at home, to read scientists estimating what may happen with the epidemic in 2021, 2022 and even 2024. But there are good reasons to question the more optimistic forecasts for when it may be safe to end the lockdowns. Models based on simulations of the infection’s dynamics foresee huge uncertainties and risks ahead.