Noted philosopher and aphorist Mr. Yogi Berra once said that "making predictions is hard, especially about the future." The U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) hasn't been deterred by the inherent difficulty of that endeavor, as it has just produced its sixth report on the state of the world some two decades in the future. It is an exhilarating assessment, although the ultimate outcome remains unknowable — and it isn't clear if the ability to see the future would prepare us any better for it. Nevertheless, the NIC report should be required reading for every national leader and concerned citizen.
Every four years, the 17 U.S. government intelligence agencies that comprise the NIC explore and assess global trends and their ultimate impacts. Those reports are developed over several years and are designed to look as broadly as possible at the forces shaping the way the world works and inform policymakers. It is a daunting and frustrating task, not only because predicting the future is difficult, but also because policymakers do not usually have the luxury of looking over the horizon.
Their immediate concern is the fires in their in-box, the problems that have to be dealt with right now. In this environment, such forecasting seems self-indulgent and irrelevant.