MADRID — The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was reached in 2005 between mostly Christian southern Sudan and the country's Muslim North ended one of the bloodiest civil wars in modern times. Lasting 22 years, the war left more than 2 million dead. Now the CPA is facing its most vital test: the South's referendum on independence, which began Sunday and will end Saturday.
Whether a new state is born in one of the most strategically sensitive areas of the world is of utmost concern to Sudan's neighbors and others. Vital issues are at stake: the scramble for oil; China's robust presence in Sudan; the West's desire to see a mostly Christian state break the contiguity of Muslim regimes — and the consequent threat of Islamic radicalism — in the region; the regional distribution of the Nile's waters; and the possibility that independence for the South might lead to Sudan's total dismemberment along ethnic and religious lines.
The fact that Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's president, was not especially keen to agree to the United Nations' plan to beef up its peacekeeping force in the country ahead of the referendum raises concern about his intentions. He would certainly be happy to dispute the referendum's legitimacy.