BEIRUT — Lebanon is poised to hold a presidential election that none of its contending factions — indeed, none of the rival factions in the region — can afford to lose.
Let's start with Syria. In 2005, President Bashar Assad's regime was forced to withdraw its army from Lebanon, following the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Syria is widely believed to have been responsible for the crime, and domestic Lebanese and international pressure helped force Syria's pullout. In a speech soon thereafter, Assad warned that nothing could sever the Syrian-Lebanese relationship.
Assad knows that the election of a president who bolsters Lebanon's sovereignty and independence would make Syria's return difficult — and Assad, as even his allies privately admit, wants nothing less.