The Sept. 11 Lower House election will test Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's politics, giving voters a chance to choose the nation's leadership between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

In the campaign, Koizumi is focusing on postal privatization, the centerpiece of his reform agenda, but that should not be the only election issue. Immediate attention must be given to restructuring the social security system and enacting fiscal and tax reforms to support the new system. The nation's falling birthrate and the graying population necessitate social security reform.

Koizumi says postal privatization is essential to revitalizing the economy, promoting business recovery, and alleviating social security-related tax burdens in the future.

In its election manifesto, the LDP pledges to enact, in the next Diet session, the postal privatization bill voted down in the Upper House on Aug. 8. Although Koizumi says many Upper House legislators are likely to rethink the issue if the majority of voters endorse postal privatization by voting for the LDP, it is doubtful that a similar bill will be enacted. One reason is that many LDP opponents of the bill plan to unite after the election.

The DPJ, in its manifesto, has not clarified its position on postal privatization, saying only that postal savings and insurance services should be downsized to an appropriate scale before considering other options, including a merger with a government-backed banking organization.

DPJ chief Katsuya Okada says postal services eventually should be privatized; or else postal savings and insurance services should be abolished. He has not clarified how to achieve these goals.

A three-pronged system handles Japanese pensions for corporate employees, public servants and self-employed persons. On the whole, the system faces a financial crisis due to declining birthrates, the graying of the society, increasing job changes and falling coverage rates. Unifying the divisions is a major political challenge.

The LDP is calling only for unification of corporate and government-employee pensions. In its election manifesto, the DPJ proposes unifying the three pensions by 2008 as well as introducing a 70,000 yen monthly minimum for pension recipients, to be funded by a consumption-tax increase. It also recommends a coding system for taxpayers.

The DPJ manifesto should spell out specifics such as when to implement changes and how to fund them, but it does not propose a rate for the pension-specific consumption tax, although it is reportedly considering 3 percent. The DPJ has failed to convince voters of the viability of the proposed system.

Restoring fiscal health to the nation is an urgent priority, as the government is expected to post a 15.9 trillion yen deficit in the primary balance of the fiscal 2005 general-account budget.

The LDP promises to balance the budget in the early 2010s and reform the tax system, including the consumption tax, by 2007. This has widely been taken as a hint that it will raise the consumption tax. Koizumi, though, has repeatedly said the tax will not be raised while he remains LDP president and prime minister, and that a raise in 2007 would be premature. Thus uncertainties surround measures to restore fiscal health.

The DPJ has pledged to restore a surplus in the primary balance of the 2013 budget by cutting expenditures by 10 trillion yen in the first three years and by reforming expenditures and revenues over the next five years. It has said nothing, however, about possible tax increases, including a consumption-tax hike.

Reform will not be realized without pain on the part of the public. Politicians need to obtain voter support by presenting road maps to reform.

The ruling and opposition parties differ sharply over diplomatic and security policies in their manifestos. The DPJ pledges to withdraw the Self-Defense Forces from Iraq by December, while the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party call for "early" SDF withdrawal. Koizumi says he will consider the issue in December, suggesting that he will further extend SDF units' tours of duty.

There are fears that the DPJ's SDF withdrawal plan could cause friction in Japan-U.S. relations. Okada says a DPJ victory at the polls would signify public support for SDF withdrawal in December and he believes Washington would understand.

It is questionable whether the DPJ has prepared a package of Middle East and antiterrorist strategies acceptable to U.S. President George W. Bush, who continues the war in Iraq despite growing American public opposition.

Meanwhile, Koizumi's annual visits to Yasukuni Shrine, Japan's memorial to its war dead, have strained Japan's relations with China and South Korea. The LDP's election manifesto calls for efforts to improve relations with China, South Korea and other Asian countries, without giving details.

The manifesto also promises to announce the LDP's draft of a revised Constitution in November and to enact a bill for a national referendum on constitutional amendments. The draft is expected to call for revising the war-renouncing Article 9 and for legalizing SDF "self-defense" missions.

In its manifesto, New Komeito, the LDP's junior coalition partner, calls for retaining Article 9 and adding environmental rights to its proposal.

The DPJ manifesto proposes only to promote national debate on its version of amendments. This approach fails to meet public expectations of a party seeking to rule the nation.

Conceivable election scenarios are:

The ruling coalition secures a majority in the Lower House, allowing Koizumi to pursue his reform agenda.

The DPJ or a DPJ-based coalition gains a majority giving it mandate to effect changes in government.

Neither the LDP nor the DPJ win a majority, as decisive votes go to the new Kokumin Shinto (People's New Party) and the Shinto Nippon (New Party Japan), both formed by LDP defectors.

Unaffiliated voters will play a pivotal role in the election, the results of which could lead to a major political realignment. The polls no doubt will have historic significance for Japan.