LONDON -- Opinion polls continue to put the British Labour Party well ahead of other parties, and the general expectation of the political pundits is that Prime Minister Tony Blair will win yet again when the general election comes, most probably on May 5.

How can this be, when he is in such deep trouble on so many fronts, and now openly at loggerheads with his chief rival Finance Minister Gordon Brown, who is convinced he would make a better leader?

One explanation offered is that the Conservatives have not been effective enough as the day-to-day opposition. Yet, in practice, the Conservatives, led by the able lawyer Michael Howard, have been tireless in holding Labour to account and in challenging exaggerated and misleading government pronouncements. The real reason goes much deeper.