PARIS -- Has French President Jacques Chirac sufficiently weighed the possible effects of his decision to hold a referendum next year on the draft EU constitution, which was approved last June by the European Council?
The rational for Chirac's move was clear: Betting on a victory of the yes vote, as then forecast by opinion polls, he hoped the referendum would appear as a personal success. He also planned it as a form of revenge on his adversaries, including the Socialist Party, which won last spring's regional and European elections, and his economy and finance minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, who is France's most popular politician thanks to his achievements as home minister.
Sarkozy has all but declared his candidacy for the 2007 presidential election. Chirac will be 75 by then, a bit old, one might say, to run for a new five-year term. But he's an active and dynamic man who never tires of meeting people or participating in the great global strategic game. It's hard to imagine him as a peaceful retiree, deprived of all his highly treasured powers and perks. Moreover, once his time in office has ended and his judicial immunity is gone, he may have to explain some campaign-financing irregularities in court.