HONOLULU -- Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro took a beating in last Sunday's Upper House elections. While his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost seats, the real blow seems to be the prime minister's loss of rapport with voters. The magic is gone, and that means his leverage within the party is shrinking. The election results reflect domestic political issues, but the changing balance of power within the LDP and among Japanese political parties could impact the U.S.-Japan relationship over the long term.
Half the seats in the 242-member Upper House were up for grabs. The ruling LDP went into the ballot holding 50 seats and hoped to increase that share by at least by one; its coalition partner, New Komeito, had 10. When the tally finished, the LDP won 49 seats and Komeito claimed 11, for a total of 60. The government still controls 139 seats in the Upper House. Psychologically, the big winner was the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which upped its seats from 38 to 50, topping even the LDP. This marks only the second time in the postwar era that the LDP did not "win" a parliamentary election.
The results are a boost of confidence for the DPJ, but the LDP and its coalition retain a majority in the Upper House and, more significantly, in the Lower House, where real power resides. In fact, Upper House elections are often viewed as an opportunity to register a protest vote since it is the weaker of the two legislative chambers. Given the prime minister's plunging popularity -- his approval rating dropped below 40 percent in recent weeks -- the election results were widely anticipated.