ISLAMABAD -- Renegade warriors who continue to mount attacks on U.S. military troops and Afghan government soldiers have effectively upset the runup to Washington-backed presidential elections scheduled in four months.

While Afghan President Hamid Karzai promises to oversee a smooth transition to his country's first genuinely elected regime, he cannot be sure about the future. Indeed, he does have reason to want a smooth transition as he would mostly likely be the chosen presidential candidate due to U.S. backing, irrespective of the fallout in terms of eroding credibility in the electoral process.

Although it is too early to accuse anyone of moving to fix Afghanistan's next elections, Karzai remains the sole candidate who is well recognized in Washington. The U.S. military presence in Afghanistan remains formidable to the extent that Washington's diktats concerning the next president promise to tilt the race one way or another.