The United States recently announced that it will soon send to Iraq one of the two brigades of the Second Infantry Division (2ID) currently stationed in South Korea. There was virtually no consultation with Seoul, and the Pentagon is making no promises that these troops will ever go back. Now unconfirmed reports suggest that 2ID's remaining brigade may also go to Iraq next year. That would signify the withdrawal of virtually all U.S. ground forces from South Korea. What might all that mean for Japan?
It means that the U.S. alliance with South Korea is rapidly dissolving because there is no longer sufficient congruence of strategic interest to sustain it. That does not mean that the U.S.-Japan alliance will meet the same fate. It does mean that Japan will have to contribute more to American security if it wishes to retain the immense benefits of alliance. The U.S. now has much greater strategic latitude than when it was tied down by countervailing Soviet power.
South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun sounded the death knell for the U.S.-South Korea alliance the night before he was elected in December 2002. He said that if there were war between North Korea and the U.S., South Korea might remain neutral. What kind of ally is that?