China's support for North Korea has backfired. What would China prefer to see -- a Japan armed with nuclear weapons, or Japan's alliance with the United States strengthened by its participation in missile defense? In Beijing, neither option has much appeal. But in relation to Japan, China has been hoisted with its own petard.
That's because a sea change in Japan's security outlook is being wrought by China's quasi-ally, North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is rattling his missiles and bragging that he has nuclear weapons. Not surprisingly, Japan is rapidly abandoning its long-standing delusion that its security problems can be ignored, or left to others to resolve.
No doubt, China would prefer a neutral Japan that it could dominate by virtue of size, proximity and demographic weight. Indeed, immediately after the Cold War, that outcome seemed possible. Many Japanese were inclined to think that "it's all economics now," and thus saw no danger in deferring to China as East Asia's rapidly rising economic power. Moreover, "multilateralism" became the code word for those who urged greater independence from America. That played into Beijing's hands by suggesting that U.S. alliances in East Asia were no longer needed.