The recent confusing announcement by the Kremlin's chief economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, that Russia will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol continues to spur some pessimists to declare that death of the pact has come at last. The Kyoto accord is not dead; rather, it is asleep, waiting to enter into force once 55 nations representing 55 percent of industrialized countries' carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 have ratified.
The debate within Russia's government about whether to ratify should be expected. Like the 100 or so countries that have already ratified, Russia should have its own national debate. In Japan there were differences between the various ministries and the private sector, which insisted that Japan already had a highly efficient industrial sector and therefore should not be regulated. In Canada, the oil-rich western provinces were so vehemently opposed to Kyoto that they even threatened to challenge its ratification under the Canadian Constitution. Thus, Russian ratification should not be expected to be seamless.
Russia's Kyoto plan has undergone a number of setbacks in recent years, leading to growing objections from critics within the government. When Russia decided on its stabilization target at 1990 levels, its economy was in decline. It expected to have plenty of room to grow without worrying about switching from fossil fuels to cleaner energy. Russia's low target also gave it a surplus of emissions permits, which it expected to sell on the emission trading market that the Kyoto accord was setting up.