HONOLULU -- In the past week, North Korea has attempted to create a crisis on the Korean Peninsula by threatening to restart its frozen nuclear reactor while demanding that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remove monitoring devices aimed at ensuring that the reactor operates in accordance with Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty safeguard procedures. Conventional wisdom is that Pyongyang is creating a fuss to force the Bush administration into new negotiations. This may be true. But I doubt that this is the only reason.
In examining Pyongyang's actions, the first question that needs to be asked is "why now?" Is it a pure coincidence that North Korea is creating this new standoff one week before South Korea's presidential elections? I think not.
At a minimum, Pyongyang would have factored the election into its timing. More likely, it represents a heavy-handed attempt to influence the outcome. One can debate whether the North's actions would benefit the conservative or liberal candidate; gauging the level of the North's understanding of South Korean domestic politics is no easy task. But attempts to meddle in Seoul's politics should come as no surprise. Last year Pyongyang suddenly agreed to resume North-South dialogue the evening before a scheduled vote of no confidence against then-Minister of Reunification Lim Dong Won, the architect of South Korea's "sunshine policy." (The tactic backfired; the vote proceeded and Lim was removed from office. After one meeting, the North once again canceled its talks with the South.)