CHIANG MAI, Thailand -- Three outside players influence, to various degrees, the destiny of Southeast Asia: the United States, Japan and China. Their influences may intensify or wane over a specific period, depending on the prevailing over- all geopolitical and economic framework. How then can we evaluate the situation in the region today? We can start by examining perceptions of each of these players which, rightly or wrongly, appear to be generally held by Southeast Asians.
(1) The U.S. is rediscovering the importance of the region after a period of relative neglect following the Vietnam War. The Philippines is at the top of American concerns followed closely by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. U.S. concerns may soon be reflected in other neighboring countries as well; nevertheless, the concerns are perceived as mono-dimensional, governed by a post-Afghanistan mindset and the drive to fight terrorism.
This does not minimize the importance of post-Sept. 11 anxieties, as moderate Southeast Asia does not wish to be drawn into a similar nightmare. But there appear to be regional fears that Washington, by focusing too much on terrorism, will downgrade other areas of cooperation needed for their overall relationship with the U.S. to develop and flourish.