It has been nearly eight months since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi took office, yet he remains hugely popular. Approval ratings for his administration are above 80 percent and show no sign of falling. How long will this continue?
Japan has had 27 prime ministers since the end of World War II. Their popularity ratings on average likely fell far below 50 percent. There is a pattern in how prime ministers' ratings change. At the outset of an administration, they are relatively high -- about 40 to 50 percent. Subsequently they gradually drop to 40-30 percent levels. If they fall to around 20 percent, the administration's days are numbered.
Only three administrations broke that pattern. Ratings for the Shigeru Yoshida Cabinet (1946-54) and the Kakuei Tanaka Cabinet (1972-74) soared over 60 percent in their heyday, and those for the Morihiro Hosokawa Cabinet (1993-94) topped 70 percent.