There were hopes, a few years ago, that North Korea might just quietly implode, as the Soviet Union did, then be absorbed by its neighbor to the south. The hermetic state was on the brink of mass starvation, created by economic mismanagement and compounded by nature's caprice. The government in Pyongyang was capable of causing trouble, as evidenced by its alleged nuclear weapons development program, but it was assumed that the mischief could be contained until the regime collapsed under its own weight. That was the unspoken assumption behind the Agreed Framework signed by the United States and North Korea and backed by South Korea and Japan.
Unfortunately, the North Korean government has shown far more resilience than had been expected. Hawkish posturing notwithstanding, no one these days seriously expects the regime to collapse. Instead, barring unforeseen circumstances, the Pyongyang government should muddle through, aided of course by generous dollops of international assistance. This has obliged the U.S. to find a new policy for dealing with North Korea, and last week, Mr. William Perry, the former U.S. secretary of defense tasked by U.S. President Bill Clinton to chart the new course, made public his recommendations. They reverse longstanding U.S. policy and call for coexistence with Pyongyang. It is an ambitious step, one that is sure to be bitterly contested by conservatives. But the existing framework for relations has failed; an alternative is needed. Success, however, depends on North Korea's reaction. That is the great unknown.
Mr. Perry's recommendations are the result of a 10-month review, which included a trip to North Korea and meetings with top officials there. (He did not meet the country's leader, Mr. Kim Jong Il, however.) The new policy disavows any U.S. intent to hasten the end of the communist regime in Pyongyang and seeks peaceful coexistence. The new direction, it is hoped, will give the North Korean leadership a sense of security and make it more inclined to deal cooperatively with their neighbors.